Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
430 AM CDT THU MAY 30 1996

CONVECTION HAS ENDED ATTM ACR FA WITH QSTNRY FNT EXTENDING NR SJT-
MAF-ROW LN. LOW LVL ELY/SELY FLOW PREVALENT ACR FA WITH DRYLINE
ALG E SLOPES CNTRL NM MTN CHAIN. SHRTWV EVIDENT IN WTR VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVG NE ACR SERN NM/FAR W TX ENHANCING CNVTN OVR TX S PLAINS/PNHDL.
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MSTR TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACR FA TODAY AS GENLY SELY
FLOW CONTS. BLV NCEP DEPICTION OF OLD FNTL BNDRY POSITION REASONABLE
FOR TDA/EVE AS SFC HI MOVS E ACR GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS WITH BNDRY
XPCD TO BE N OF AREA AND DRYLINE FCST TO MOV SLGTLY EWD...BELIEVE
CNVTN TO DVLP LATER THIS AFTN INVOF OF FNT AND NR MTN AREAS DUE TO
OROGRAPHICS/DRYLINE POSITION. ANY TSTMS THAT OCCUR COULD AGAIN BE
SVR AS PER SPC OUTLOOK. CHC POPS WARRANTED THOSE AREAS WITH SLGT
CHC MENTION ELSW. AS PER COORD WITH LBB...WITH MDT LOW LVL SELY
FLOW..THETA-E RIDGE AXIS..INSTABILITY AXIS (E.G. MINUS 4-8 LI/S)
EXTENDING N-S ACR AREA...BELIEVE BETTER CHC PCPN TNGT WITH APCH
OF NXT SPEED MAX AND ASSOCD DIFF VORT ADV IN H5-H3 LAYER AS INDCD
IN GRIDDED DATA. TEMPS TODAY NOT QUITE AS WRM AS WED AS LOW LVL
CAA EXPECTED. SLGT CHC TSTMS AGAIN FRI AS DRYLI,NE MOVS E IN RESPONSE
TO LONGWAVE TROF MOVG ACR NRN U.S. PLAINS.

BF

MAF   90/2
CNM   94/2
MRF   90/1
P07   92/2

TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-NMZ027>029-310500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1143 AM CDT (1043 AM MDT) THU MAY 30 1996

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN
LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND AT NOON.  ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BETWEEN CRANE AND FORT
STOCKTON.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FAGEN