Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 1996

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
EXITING ERN KS...WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT.  XPCT LTL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE GIVEN DEGREE OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.  SFC FRONT HARD TO PICK
OUT DUE TO POOL OF RAIN COOLED AIR OVR CNTRL/SCNTRL KS BUT SEEMS TO BE
SOMEWHERE THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH AN OUTFLOW BNDRY SET UP IN SCNTRL AND SE
KS.  TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THIS OUTFLOW BNDRY OF ALMOST 20 DEGREES.  AMS IN
THE WARM PART OF THIS BNDRY UNCAPPED ATTM AND XPCT THIS BNDRY TO BE FOCUS
OF RAPID CONVECTION NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TNGT...FRONT SHUD BE SOMEWHERE
ALONG OK BORDER.  XPCT ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
EVENING/TNGT AS THE LLJ SETS UP ACROSS IT.  HIGH CAPES XPCTD INDICATE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STMS ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY THIS AFTN AND LATER TNGT ON
FRONT.  TMRW...MDLS KICK OUT UPR LVL LOW INTO CO BUT DIFFER ON POSITION OF
WAVES EJECTING OUT OF IT AND ALSO ON SFC FEATURES.  WILL ASSUME NGM NORTH
BIAS AND FOLLOW ETAS MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE LOW IN OK WITH
FNT JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  WITH BETTER UPR LVL DYNAMICS...XPCT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE WITH PREVIOUS PKG COOLING TREND DUE TO FRONT MOVG
SOUTH AND INCRSG CLD COVER TMRW.

RSL 056/074 66   SLN 060/075 76
ICT 064/080 76   HUT 063/079 66
CNU 065/081 66

MATT