Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT THU SEP 26 1996

MAIN FOCUS AND CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX ACROSS SETX.  IN
THE SHORT TERM...STG SRLY WNDS OVR THE FCST AREA AS OPPOSED TO SWRLY
WNDS JUST TO THE WEST WAS REFLECTIVE OF THE SHEAR OVR THE FA.  DWPTS
WERE IN THE MID 70S OVR MUCH OF THE WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH PSX NR 80.  THE S/W PROVIDING FOR THIS SHUD BE THRU THE
FA BY EARLY THIS EVE AND SVR TSTMS LOOK TO BE A SLGT POSSIBILITY
(WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT NOW UNTIL 9 PM...SEE SPC INFO).

XPC A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVNGT...BUT UNCERTAIN ENUF TO KEEP A CHC
FOR TSTMS IN THE FCST.  WITH THE CDFNT LOOKING TO MOV THRU THE FA
LATE FRI AFT/EARLY EVE...THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY WL BE BIG ENUF EARLIER IN THE 2ND PD TO STEAL ITS
THUNDER (SO TO SPEAK).  RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
WL KEEP THINGS QUITE BUSY SAT AFT.

THE NEXT QUESTON THEN CONCERNS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FFA.  STMS THIS
AFT WERE MOVG AT A GOOD NRD CLIP...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENUF PRECIP
TONIGHT TO CALL FOR A FFA.  FOR FRIDAY...ETA GRID DATA DOES INDICATE
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT AND THKNS DIFFLUENCE MOVG SRD OVR THE FA
THRU THE AFT INTO THE EVE.  WITH PW/S NR 2 INCHES AT THE TIME...LYR
RH VALUES 70 PERCENT OR GREATER...AND THKNS VALUES NR 575...THERE WL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT.  SO...NEED TO ADDRESS THE
QUESTON OF A FFA FOR FRI AFT AND EVE.  WL LIKELY ISSUE ONE ON THE 4AM
AFD/ZFP.  40

PRELIMS...
CLL 76/91/57/79 373
IAH 78/92/58/78 374
GLS 81/87/67/77 375