Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 1996

NSAT IR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG FRONT FROM
MN SOUTH TO OKC. LARGE TSTM COMPLEX IN NRN MN IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS TRW TO ITS SOUTH ROBS SOME OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO IT. SOME OF
THE TRW HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN A LITTLE DURG THE PAST HOUR MAINLY FROM
30I SOUTH TO SERN KS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER THE FA
ALTHOUGH FOG WAS PREVALENT ALONG THE WARM FROM FROM LAN/JXN EAST.
TONIGHTS QUESTION IS WHEN/IF THE TRW TO THE WEST WILL MAKE INTO SW
LWR MI. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER THE FA BUT GRIDDED
DATA FROM 00Z SHOWED SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LVL TEMPS ADVECTING IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NO DOUBT ACT TO REDUCE THE CAP A LITTLE. SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER THOUGH IS THE TIME OF NIGHT. THERE`S NOT EXACTLY AN ABUNDANCE
OF SFC HEATING TAKING PLACE AND IN ADDITION, LAKE MI IS STILL PRETTY
COLD COMPARED TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP. IF THE LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES
AT ITS PRESENT CLIP, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO SW LWR AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT
I DO NOT BELIEVE SVR WX IS IN THE OFFING DUE TO SO MANY ENVIRONMENTAL
THINGS GOING AGAINST IT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THRU
THE FA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST. NOT A LOT OF WX
BEHIND THE FRONT, JUST MORE HEAT. GRIDDED DATA POINTS TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

WF