Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
215 PM EDT MON JUN 17 1996

KGRR 88D SHOWS TRW FIRING IN SW LWR AND NW IN. THE TRW IN SW LWR IS
TENDING TO FALL APART AS IT MOVES NORTH. A STRONG TEMP/MOISTURE
GRADIENT EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER. THE MAX MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING EXISTS IN NE IN JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA. THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 15Z
POSITION. KGRR 88D VWP SHOWS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. UNLESS THIS BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH, I
WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE SVR ACTIVITY TO JUST GRAZE THE SRN TIP OF THE
FA WHERE THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER.

GRIDDED DATA SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOVG LOW IN IA. THIS IS PROGGED TO MOV
TO WRN LWR IN 48 HRS. THAT MEANS MORE OF THE SAME TYPE OF WX DURG THE
NEXT 24 HRS. KEEP TRW IN FCST THRU TUESDAY.

WF

MIZ071>073-077>080-172040-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
237 PM EDT MON JUN 17 1996

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF LOWER MICHIGAN...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... BERRIEN... BRANCH... CALHOUN... CASS...
KALAMAZOO... ST. JOSEPH... AND VAN BUREN. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF KALAMAZOO... BATTLE CREEK... AND BENTON HARBOR-ST. JOSEPH.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

AT 235 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE LANSING AREA SOUTHWEST
TO JUST SOUTH OF KALAMAZOO. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
LINE WAS AT THE SOUTH END... ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KALAMAZOO
NEAR VICKSBURG AND FULTON. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH... AND WILL REACH BATTLE CREEK BY 245 PM.

OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WERE PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS BERRIEN COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME... THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LIES SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER. BUT... A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...
WITH SMALL HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND RAPIDS WILL KEEP YOU
INFORMED WITH FREQUENT UPDATES THROUGHOUT THIS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

GREENE

MIZ071>073-077>080-180000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
600 PM EDT MON JUN 17 1996

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF LOWER MICHIGAN...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... BERRIEN... BRANCH... CALHOUN... CASS...
KALAMAZOO... ST. JOSEPH... AND VAN BUREN. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF KALAMAZOO... BATTLE CREEK... AND BENTON HARBOR-ST. JOSEPH.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

AT 600 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE LANSING AREA SOUTH TO
JACKSON AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLDWATER. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH... AND SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF LANSING... JACKSON... AND HILLSDALE BY 700 PM EDT.

OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN-INDIANA BORDER... AND THESE WILL JUST SKIRT EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BORDER COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
THIS EVENING.

AT THIS TIME... NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN MICHIGAN. BUT... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND RAPIDS WILL KEEP YOU
INFO"RMED WITH FREQUENT UPDATES THROUGHOUT THIS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

GREENE