Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT (240 PM CDT) TUE AUG 6 1996

...BIG CHALLENGE IS TSTM CHANCES THIS EVE/TONIGHT...

ETA MDL OF CHOICE DUE TO SFC FTRS AND PAST PERFORMANCE.
ETA SFC LOW OVR KS/NE BORDER THIS EVE WITH LOW LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE
POOLING NEAR LOW VCNTY.  BEST UPWARD FORCING IS INDICATED ON TOP OF
AND N OF THIS SFC LOW.  MODIFIED MORNING SNDGS ALSO POINT TO THIS
AREA WITH MUCH MORE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND INSTABILITY.  A MODIFIED
SOUNDING BETWEEN MCK-LBF OUTPUTS CAPE OF AROUND 5000 J/KG.

S AND W OF THIS AREA...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED OUT THIS AFTN
WITH SW SFC WNDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  TAIL END OF S/WV SHOULD
EFFECT FAR E COLO INTO NW KS WITH RETURN OF LOW LVL MSTR FORECAST.
ATTM...STRONG CAP INDICATED BY ADAPS OVR HI PLAINS SPCLY W OF GLD.
ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT THIS EVE AND 850-700 TEMP ADVECTION WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE AMS.  STILL CONCERN ABT ETA KEEPING DRIER AIR
OVR FAR NW KS/E COLO.  WITH MAIN ENERGY JUST N OF CWA AND UPPER LVL
FLOW MORE SW TO NE...FEEL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF FA.

IN OUT PERIODS...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE PUSHES SE
LATER TONIGHT.  STRONG SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS OVR E COLO INTO W
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AMS BCMG MORE STABLE.  MDLS AGREE IN
PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO AREA WED AND THURS WITH BUILDING 500MB HGTS.

GLD 56/83/58/90 10-    HLC 62/86/61/91 2--
CBK 58/84/60/91 10-    MCK 62/84/60/90 30-
TRB 58/85/60/91 -0-    ITR 55/82/57/89 10-

KPL

KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ080-081-070400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
556 PM MDT (656 PM CDT) TUE AUG 6 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT)...

A LINE OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF
THE CELLS IN THIS LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIZO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION.

VOJTESAK