Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Hastings, NE

CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 1996

MOST OF THE FREE WORLD EXPECTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CWA...FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS.

AT 18Z WARM FRONT (BASED ON 55 DEW POINTS) IN NORTHERN KS WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS SAGGIGNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ALSO CIRCULATION
AROUND A HIGH OVER MO WAS PUMPING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.  UEX 88D
STARTING TO SHOW MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES ALONG A LINE FROM EAR TO HEBRON.
12Z U/A ANAL HAD 5H RIDGE OVHD WITH A LOW OVER THE PAC NW.  S/W DETECTED
OVER GREAT BASIN AND WV IMAGERY SHOWING THIS FEATURE MOVG EAST.

MODELS SIMILIAR IN THE DEEPING OF THE PAC NW LOW AND KEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.
IN ADDITION LOW PRESSURE IS MAINTAINED IN SW KS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA NOT GOING ANYWHERE.  THEATA-E SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN IN ERN PTN
OF NEB CWA AND AGREE WITH OMA ON THE FFW FOR THE ERN COUNTIES.  WHEN LBF
SOUNDING MODIFIED THIS MORNING ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
SO BELIEVE ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THINGS COME TOGETHER.  WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY COULD BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY.  LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING IN PLACE
SO IT APPEARS THE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE.

MCS/MCC DEVELOPING TONIGHT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEFINITELY SHOW A TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SC NEB
AND NC KS.

GRI 058/075 74         HBR 057/076 74
ODX 055/070 74         BLT 062/088 62
LXN 055/072 74

GRIFFITH