Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
250 AM CDT MON MAY 6 1996

FCST PROBLEM TODAY THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAL COVERAGE OF
RW/TRW AND THE RESULTANT IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
PCGRIDDS ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LLVL FORCING OVER ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
THE PD AS SFC LOW OVR SRN OK AT 06/06Z WOBBLES ALONG THE STNRY
FRONT. WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT RW- THIS AM...WITH MORE ORGANIZED WX
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY WELL BE A BREAK BETWEEN 07/00Z AND 07/06Z
AS ENERGY IS DIVERTED INTO OUR NEXT BALL-O-RAIN...BUT AM
UNCOMFORTABLE TIMING THE PCPN.  BY 07/06Z ALL MODELS SHOW CLASSIC
MCS SIGNATURE...WITH RH AOA 70 PERCENT SOLID FROM
SFC-350MB...COINCIDING WITH ONSET OF STRONG LIFT ASSOC WITH SFC TROF.

WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK NUMEROUS AMBIENT BOUNDARIES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LKLY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT. FURTHER NORTH...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A STJ-MACON LINE...PCPN WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.
CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM TO BE IN ORDER TNT...WITH LEFTOVER SLOP INTO
TUE MORNING...MAINLY R-/L- THRU THE MORNING. AM SIMILARLY
UNCOMFORTABLE TIMING END OF PCPN TOMORROW.

AGREE WITH STL THAT FFA NOT NEEDED ATTM...BUT VERY LIKELY FOR
TNT...AND POSSIBLY FOR THIS PM. FFG ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GO
ALREADY...AND LCL 2 OR 3 INCH AMTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS TODAY DUE TO MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECASTT. REST
OF PD LUKS REASONABLE ATTM.

MCI TW 63/54 6+

JHV