Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
250 AM CDT MON MAY 6 1996

FCST PROBLEM TODAY THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAL COVERAGE OF
RW/TRW AND THE RESULTANT IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
PCGRIDDS ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LLVL FORCING OVER ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
THE PD AS SFC LOW OVR SRN OK AT 06/06Z WOBBLES ALONG THE STNRY
FRONT. WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT RW- THIS AM...WITH MORE ORGANIZED WX
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY WELL BE A BREAK BETWEEN 07/00Z AND 07/06Z
AS ENERGY IS DIVERTED INTO OUR NEXT BALL-O-RAIN...BUT AM
UNCOMFORTABLE TIMING THE PCPN.  BY 07/06Z ALL MODELS SHOW CLASSIC
MCS SIGNATURE...WITH RH AOA 70 PERCENT SOLID FROM
SFC-350MB...COINCIDING WITH ONSET OF STRONG LIFT ASSOC WITH SFC TROF.

WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK NUMEROUS AMBIENT BOUNDARIES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LKLY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT. FURTHER NORTH...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A STJ-MACON LINE...PCPN WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.
CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM TO BE IN ORDER TNT...WITH LEFTOVER SLOP INTO
TUE MORNING...MAINLY R-/L- THRU THE MORNING. AM SIMILARLY
UNCOMFORTABLE TIMING END OF PCPN TOMORROW.

AGREE WITH STL THAT FFA NOT NEEDED ATTM...BUT VERY LIKELY FOR
TNT...AND POSSIBLY FOR THIS PM. FFG ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GO
ALREADY...AND LCL 2 OR 3 INCH AMTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS TODAY DUE TO MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECASTT. REST
OF PD LUKS REASONABLE ATTM.

MCI TW 63/54 6+

JHV

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT MON MAY 6 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
EVENING...
...HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...

FORECAST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SAINT JOSEPH TO MACON LINE.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. THE FIRST ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...
WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ROUND OF STORMS IS HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY COMPLICATING FLOODING PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXTENDS BETWEEN A
SAINT JOSEPH TO MOBERLY LINE...SOUTH TO A LAWRENCE KS TO CLINTON MO
LINE.

DISCUSSION...THE SITUATION TODAY IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY FIRING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI IS LIKELY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.

JHV