Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
240 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 1996

NO TIME FOR LENGTHY DISC DUE TO ONGING SVR WX. E-W QSTNRY BNDRY EXTDS
FM A LOW OVR CNTRL KS EWD THRU SRN PTN KC METRO THRU STL. BNDRY LIKELY
TO VACILLATE 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF CURRENT PSN NEXT 36 HRS. BIG DIFF
BTN ETA/NGM IN FNTL PSNS. YDA ETA WAS BTR BUT TODAY NGM BEST. BOTH
NGM/ETA FCST CNVTV FEEDBACK TYPE VORT MAX BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES...ETA
AT 00Z TNGT OVR SE IA AND NGM 24 HRS IN NRLY SAME PSN. GIVEN ONGOING
CNVTN NGM LOOKS BEST. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX LFTG NNE THRU OK AND
ASSOCD PVA INTERACTING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA TO FORM ELEVATED SVR.

WILL LOOK FOR ADDNL STORMS TO FIRE W OF KC METRO LT AFTN/EVE WITH STILL
THE PTNL FOR AN MCS TO DVLP FTHR N ACRS NRN KS/SRN NEB AND THEN ROLLING
EWD INTO NRN MO ALA THE 24 HR CNVTV FEEDBACK VORT PATS. GUID TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY GOOD.

MCI  65/81  53

.EAX..CONT WW NUMBER 423 TIL 7 PM.

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 1996

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

FORECAST...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS...HAM RADIO AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING EAST OF A BETHANY TO KANSAS CITY LINE SINCE THE NOON HOUR.
SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE  ACROSS THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODCUE ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A BETHANY MISSOURI TO PAOLA KANSAS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.
SINCE THE GROUND IS SATURATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI FROM PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO HIGH.

JULY