Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 1996

WILL MAKE SOME SGFNT CHGS TO FAR NRN ZONES FOR SCT RW-/TRW- AND ALSO
LOWER MAX TEMPS DUE TO WIDESPREAD ST OVR AREA. EXPC THIS CLD COVER TO
LIFT BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CLDNS. QSTNRY BNDRY WAS FTHR N
YDA AND 3OI ONLY MADE IT TO 71. WILL KNOCK ABT 10 DEGREES OFF GOING
FCST. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS APRNT VORT MAX MOVG NNE OUT OF N CNTRL TX.
LOTS OF ACCAS SPREADING N ACRS ERN KS INTO NW MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS
BNDRY AND WAA ALLOWING FOR CNVTN TO CONT DESPITE NORMAL DIURNAL LULL
FOR CNVTN. MRNG 12HR ETA SHOWS CNVTV FEEDBACK TYPE VORT MAX OVR SE IA
SO WILL HV TO WATCH FOR PSBL MCS DVLPG THIS AFTN ACRS NRN MO. TOP 12Z
RAOB SHOWS PRONOUNCED CAP SO LOOKING AT ELEVATED CNVTN...MRNG H7 RAOB
ANALYSIS SHOWS +12 ISOTHERM AS FAR E AS WRN MO.

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 1996

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

FORECAST...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS...HAM RADIO AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING EAST OF A BETHANY TO KANSAS CITY LINE SINCE THE NOON HOUR.
SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE  ACROSS THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODCUE ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A BETHANY MISSOURI TO PAOLA KANSAS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.
SINCE THE GROUND IS SATURATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI FROM PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO HIGH.

JULY