Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
400 AM CDT THU MAY 09 1996

NOT MUCH DETAIL THIS AM. COORD WITH STL AND TOP ON POPS...TEMPS...FFA
POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS SPC ON SVR THREAT FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

PER EAX WSR-88D...NOTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVNG S OF KC METRO-SDL LN
AS OF 4AM. WITH MOIST AIR S OF THIS BOUNDARY...BELIEVE GOOD CU/TCU
FIELD WILL BE INITIATED HERE IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
MID/LATE AM.
GOOD DIFFERENTIAL DVGNC SHOULD MOVE ACRS NERN KS/NWRN MO/ W CNTRL
MO BY 16-17Z...SETTING OFF TRW ACRS OUTFLOW BNDRY AND CDFNT IN
NE/KS.  DIVG/UUV APPRS TO INCRS FM 24-30 HRS ON ETA...SUGGESTING
MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION FM AFTN INTO EVE...DIMINISHING AFT
10/06Z. PER COORDINATION WITH STL...DECIDED TO LEAVE FFA IN PLACE
FOR NRN 3/4 OF CWA / INCL KC METRO/ FOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. FFG
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOW IN A MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AND
ANY TRAINING TRWS WOULD EASILY CAUSE FLOODING IN LESS THAN 2HR TIME
FRAME.

WL GO WITH ETA ON TIMING OF CDFNT WHICH SUGGEST LTL EWD MOVEMENT
UNTIL 24-36 HR TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT WELL DEPICTED...SFC WV/LOW
IN SWRN KS AND N CNTRL KS IS SLIGHTLY HINTED AT IN THE 12Z ETA SFC
PROG...ABT 3-6 HRS SLOWER THAN CURRENT WX.

AGREE WITH TOP AND STL ON MENTION OF SVR/HVY RAIN IN ZONES. I HAVE
BEEN ON TOO MANY MIDS THIS PAS WEEK TO SPLIT HAIRS ON MENTION OF
SVR/ NON-SVR TRWS FOR CWA.

MCI 085/062 7n8

SMITH

MOZ001-002-011-090920-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
313 AM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ATCHISON...HOLT...AND NODAWAY COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
NEBRASKA...IOWA...AND ATCHISON...HOLT...AND NODAWAY COUNTIES IN
MISSOURI HAS EXPIRED. AT 300 AM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER.

JHV

MOZ001-002-011-090920-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
313 AM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ATCHISON...HOLT...AND NODAWAY COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
NEBRASKA...IOWA...AND ATCHISON...HOLT...AND NODAWAY COUNTIES IN
MISSOURI HAS EXPIRED. A TORNADO WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI /EAST OF NODAWAY COUNTY/ UNTIL 700 AM. AT
300 AM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

JHV

MOZ004>008-015>017-090950-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
344 AM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...

THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT FOR GENTRY...HARRISON...
MERCER...GRUNDY...PUTNAM...SULLIVAN...SCHUYLER...AND ADAIR COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. AT 340 AM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL REMAINING OVER PUTNAM AND SCHUYLER COUNTIES...BUT THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

JHV

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 AM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

FORECAST...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...OR REPEATING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SAME AREA WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MISSOURI AND THE BORDER COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
ARE LIKELY NORTH OF A ST. JOSEPH TO MACON MISSOURI LINE...WITH NEAR
ONE INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF A OLATHE KANSAS-BOONEVILLE MISSOURI. THE
RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE OUTFLOW WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NEBRASKA WILL INTENSIFY THE STRENGTH AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS HEAVY
...POSSIBLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVATION OF CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS...HAM OPERATOR AND SKYWARN
NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLOOD PROBLEMS.2

SMITH

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO ADD TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

FORECAST...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING
THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...OR REPEATING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SAME AREA WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MISSOURI AND THE BORDER COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
ARE LIKELY NORTH OF A ST. JOSEPH TO MACON MISSOURI LINE...WITH NEAR
ONE INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF A OLATHE KANSAS-BOONEVILLE MISSOURI. THE
RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A
OLATHE KANSAS-BOONEVILLE MISSOURI LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE OUTFLOW WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NEBRASKA WILL INTENSIFY THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH AND INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS HEAVY
...POSSIBLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON TH@ROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVATION OF CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS...HAM OPERATOR AND SKYWARN
NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLOOD PROBLEMS.

SMITH