Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT THU JUL 25 1996

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME WITH MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850 MB
FRONT. SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOWING A WEAK WAVE
OVER SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS ALREADY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP FOR THE DAY.
WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT TO SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT...FEEL
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN A REAL PRIME POSITION UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING...BUT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY GOING ON TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW EARLIER STORMS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS TONIGHT...THEN TAPER THINGS OFF BY MORNING. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
A POSSIBLE REPEAT...WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE BEST PVA FROM ABOUT CENTRAL KANSAS
EASTWARD. GARP DATA SHOWING A GOOD THETA-E RIDGE AND HIGH CAPES OVER
WESTERN KANSAS THOUGH DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD...SO MAY SEE SOME
OUTFLOW TYPE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MCS ITSELF. WILL GENERALLY JUST
FOLLOW ALONG WITH PERSISTANCE AND KEEP LOWER POPS GOING DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS AND HIGHER CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTS.

UPSLOPE WINDS TO CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND ALL DAY FRIDAY...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO HINDER DAYTIME TEMPS. HAVE GONE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR THIS REASON.

DDC  064/077 063/084 064 636
GCK  063/078 062/085 062 635
EHA  064/077 064/087 063 635
LBL  064/077 063/086 064 635
HYS  064/075 062/083 062 636
P28  067/080 065/087 066 636

PARKIN