Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 1996

...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS SEVERE WX CHANCES AND TIMING OF UPPER
   SHRTWV FEATURES...

SHTWVS IN NW FLOW CONT TO BE THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR CNVCTN AND
TIMING OF THESE WVS ARE CRITICAL. NGM SHOWS THE BEST MINOR
SHRTWV IN BACK OF DEPARTING MCS TO DROP INTO RGN IN LATE PM
WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO WV. GOOD UPSLOPE TO HELP
RETURN MSTR AS LOW PSR DVLPS IN SERN CO TAFTN AND ETA/AVN SEEM
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SFC FEATURE. WITH GOOD TURNING OF
HODOGRAPH IN LOW LVLS SOME STORMS SHLD BE SEVERE WITH MAIN
THREAT HAIL AND WIND. BEST UPR SHEAR STAYS NORTH AND EAST FOR
BEST SUPERCELL THREAT. SOME WAA AND MINOR CAPPING AT H7 TO KEEP
TSTRMS AT BAY UNTIL SHRTWV ARRIVES FROM NWRN KS LATE TAFTN AND
PSBL MCS THEN MOVS OUT OF ERN CWA INTO ERN/CNTRL KS. BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN IS FROM HAYS TO PRATT AND P28 WITH DEEPER MSTR AND WEAKER
CAP...WHILE SWRN CWA MORE CAPPED AND DRIER ALOFT...AND HAVE WORDED
ZONE FCST RESPECTIVELY. WITH PLENTY OF DIABATIC HTG AND SOME
LOW LVL WAA TDY SHLD REACH WARMER FWC GUID FCT TEMPS EXCEPT
WARMER YET IN P28 AREA DUE TO SOIL ALBEDO WHERE MID 90S TO
AGAIN BE COMMON.

FOR LONG TERM...NW FLOW CONT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO BRING
GRADUALL WARM-UP...HOWEVER WITH NW FLOW PATTERN YOU CAN BET
ON MINOR SHRTWVS TO KICK OFF MORE ROUNDS OF CNVCTN. BEST AREA
OF CNVCTN AGAIN WHERE H7 CAP IS WEAKER IN ERN CWA WHILE SWRN
AREAS MAY START TO CAP OFF. LOOKS LIKE STRONG WAVE TO PUSH COLD
FRONT THRU ON MONDAY ON NEW MRF AND COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS
AGAIN IF THIS COME TRUE.

DDC 089/064 089/064 091 343
GCK 090/064 090/063 091 343
EHA 091/064 092/060 095 222
LBL 090/065 0 92/060 092 222
HYS 088/060 085/059 089 453
P28 095/069 095/069 095 943

KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084-260845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 855 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH:

TREGO..ELLIS..SCOTT..LANE..NESS..RUSH..HAMILTON..KEARNY..FINNEY
..HODGEMAN..PAWNEE..STAFFORD..STANTON..MORTON..GRANT..HASKELL..GRAY..
FORD..KIOWA..ED6WARDS AND PRATT.

BURKE/REITER

KSZ030-085>090-260905-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 855 EXPIRED AT 3 AM CDT...

NO PART OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

BURKE/REITER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    9 SE MEADE                KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   MEADE

0743 PM    8 WSW HAYS                KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   ELLIS

0930 PM    HANSTON                   KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   HODGEMAN

0945 PM    WAKEENEY                  KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   TREGO

0945 PM    8 SSW MACKSVILLE          KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   STAFFORD

0948 PM    HANSTON                   KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   HODGEMAN

1008 PM    1 N WAKEENEY              KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   TREGO

1014 PM    8 SSE MACKSVILLE          KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   STAFFORD

1040 PM    4 E ANTONINO              KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/25/96   ELLIS

0100 AM    JETMORE                   KS   60 MPH WIND GUST
07/26/96   HODGEMAN                       TREE LIMBS DOWN

BURKE/REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 1996

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. RETURNING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN COLORADO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO SET OFF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AND HAYS BY MID
AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FROM ELKHART TO DODGE CITY
AND PRATT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDWATER TO MEDICINE
LODGE SHOULD SEE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BY EARLY TO
LATE EVENING. A GRADUAL TURNING IN THE WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT COULD
CAUSE SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE WITH THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SPOTTER
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING.

KRUSE