Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 1996

...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY IS CHANCES OF PCPN...

PREFER RAFS MODEL THIS PERIOD BASED ON VERIFYING THE BEST FIRST
6 HOURS (18Z) WITH SURFACE PRESSURE AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF S/W INTO
UTAH BY 00Z SUN. IN ANY EVENT BEST CHANCE OF TRW TONIGHT APPEARS
TO BE IN WRN AND NRN CWA COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W MOVING
JUST NORTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NRN KANSAS.

20 TO 30 POP IN ORDER ON SUNDAY AS SFC TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH COUNTIES WITH RAFS SHOWING FAIRLY HIGH THETA E AIR.
COLD FNT APPROACHES NRN CWA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WENT
30 POP THERE...20 ELSEWHERE.

ON MONDAY HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE AND FRONT HAS TROUBLE MAKING
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. RAFS INDICATING SFC TROUGH KS/COLO BORDER
BY EVENING. WENT 30 POP TRW NRN AND WRN CWA COUNTIES MONDAY.
LEFT OUT ANY POP FOR MEDICINE LODGE ALL PERIODS AS THEY APPEAR
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM TRIGGERS.

FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD.

DDC 067/096 065/095 067 232
GCK 067/096 065/095 067 232
EHA 065/097 063/095 065 222
LBL 068/097 066/095 068 232
HYS 067/090 063/090 067 333
P28 071/099 069/097 071 -0-

CICCONE