Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 1996

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRW CHANCE TNGHT IN N AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN NW.

CONVECTION IN COLORADO AT 20Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH WILL PROBABLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY S OF E
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAY CLIP OUR NORTHERNMOST CWA
COUNTIES TNGT. FWC POP AT RSL IS 30 AND ETA AVN GRIDDED DATA DO
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER 70H TEMPS AND HIGHER THETA E THAT AREA.
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC N TNGT.

KEPT 20 POP TRW SATURDAY IN SAME AREA FOR SIMILAR REASONING AND
STATIONARY FRONT MAY DRIFT FARTHER S INTO NRN KANSAS DUE TO
TONIGHTS CONVECTION.
                                                                               DDECIDED TO PUT 20 POP SAT NGHT NW COUNTIES DUE TO MODELS INDICATING
SOME EROSION OF UPPER HIGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
LEFT OUT POP ON SUNDAY AS AVN INDICATING SOME STRENGTHENING AGAIN
OF UPPER HIGH AND FWC POPS SO LOW.

WENT LOWER TNGT ON MINS THEN LAST NIGHT DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS
AND PROBABLY LESS WIND. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DDC 068/097 072/097 070 000
GCK 067/099 072/099 069 001
EHA 066/101 069/101 068 001
LB6L 068/098 072/098 070 00-
HYS 070/098 073/098 072 222
P28 072/102 073/101 073 000

CICCONE