Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTION/COORD...
...PIT...NO SIG CHANGES.
...PHL...NO SIG CHANGES.

...DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED T-STRMS AND PLENTY OF CU POPPING UP IN CNTRL PA CURRENTLY
DUE TO COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HTG OVR MTNS AND SOME WK UPR AIR
FORCING AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA.  ETA APPEARS TO
CONFINE MOST OF SHORT-TERM ACTION TO THE NW AND CENTRAL PA THRU
F24...WITH GREATEST QPF IN NW MTNS.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE THRU PERIOD AS FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE AREA.  UPR LVL LOW
STAYS FAIRLY STATIONARY THRU F24 RESULTING IN LITTLE PUSH ALOFT TO
MOVE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT THRU THE PERIOD.  FRONT SHOULD BE MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM DURING PERIOD AS MOST OF THE UPR AIR SUPPORT
STAYS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WOULD EXPECT NW TO SEE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH A FEW T-STRMS REACHING EASTWARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WORKING INTO CENTRAL PA.  THIS
COULD BE HELPING TO FOCUS SOME ACTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE DRY AIR
IN THE NW AND MAY SHUT OFF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...UNLESS ABLE TO
BREAK THE CAP.

GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.  FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THEREFORE WARRANTS CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND ADJUSTMENTS PER GUIDANCE.

WIDENOR/NICOSIA