Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTION/COORD...
...PIT...NO SIG CHANGES.
...PHL...NO SIG CHANGES.

...DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED T-STRMS AND PLENTY OF CU POPPING UP IN CNTRL PA CURRENTLY
DUE TO COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HTG OVR MTNS AND SOME WK UPR AIR
FORCING AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER INDIANA.  ETA APPEARS TO
CONFINE MOST OF SHORT-TERM ACTION TO THE NW AND CENTRAL PA THRU
F24...WITH GREATEST QPF IN NW MTNS.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE THRU PERIOD AS FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE AREA.  UPR LVL LOW
STAYS FAIRLY STATIONARY THRU F24 RESULTING IN LITTLE PUSH ALOFT TO
MOVE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT THRU THE PERIOD.  FRONT SHOULD BE MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM DURING PERIOD AS MOST OF THE UPR AIR SUPPORT
STAYS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WOULD EXPECT NW TO SEE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH A FEW T-STRMS REACHING EASTWARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WORKING INTO CENTRAL PA.  THIS
COULD BE HELPING TO FOCUS SOME ACTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE DRY AIR
IN THE NW AND MAY SHUT OFF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...UNLESS ABLE TO
BREAK THE CAP.

GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.  FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THEREFORE WARRANTS CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND ADJUSTMENTS PER GUIDANCE.

WIDENOR/NICOSIA

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-080000-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1245 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 1996

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL - NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BEDFORD TO BLOOMSBURG LINE IN THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS... MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS...
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...  AND LARGE
HAIL.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD MONITOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTS
AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY HAVE TO BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

NICOSIA