Flash Flood Warning 139, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
...PHL...WUD LOWER POPS UPPER SUSQ ZONES AS FORCING SEEMS TO WANT
TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THIS AREA. UPPER SHORT WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
AREA SHUD MINIMIZE POPS FOR WED.
...PIT...THINK NRN ZONES WILL SEE MINIMUM CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. SRN
ZONES BEST CHC. REST OF ZONES LOOK OK.

...DISCUSSION...
THUNDER FIRING NOW APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WHICH IS BEING CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE
TO DIABATIC HEATING AFFECTS. GENERAL CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN
CONCENTRATING FROM VA/WV NORTHEASTWARD INTO SERN PA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING ALREADY UNDERWAY IN YORK CTY PA.

EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT WITH PRECIP
TENDING TO WIND DOWN AS WE LOSE HEATING AND AS UPPER TROF SWINGS
THRU BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK WINDS WILL MAKE AREAS VULNERABLE TO
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. GRIDDS INDICATE NVA AND
DIVERGING FLOW IN LOW LEVELS WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS KIND
OF HIGH BUT AFTER ERLY CLOUDS...SHUD SEE DRYING SETTING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST AS SFC LOW FORMS AND MOVES OFF SRN NEW ENG COAST.

LA CORTE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-280000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PENNSYLVANIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 1996

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN KANSAS CITY INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WEAK FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
TODAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WHICH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH COULD CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LA CORTE