Flash Flood Warning 138, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
830 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
...ZONES LOOK GOOD.

...DISCUSSION...
AMORPHOUS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRY AND ACT AS FOCUS FOR
WHATEVER ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP HERE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CONTINUING LINE OF THOUGHT FROM YEST AND OVERNIGHT...SFC FRONT
BECOMES ILL DEFINED WITH THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT LAGGING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE BORDER WHILE PRESSURE PATTERN AND JET DYNAMICS SUPPORT
SYSTEM SAGGING INTO SRN PARTS OF THE REGION. THERMALLY A FRONT IS
FCST TO BE SUPPORTED ALONG AN ALB-DUJ-PIT LINE BY AROUND 00Z. SFC
WIND SHEAR WUD SUGGEST A POSITION ABOUT A DEG OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH.
MESO AND SYNOPTIC ETA'S SEEM TO BE ALLOWING SFC DIABATIC EFFECTS TO
OVERWHELM PRESSURE FIELD CAUSING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTH
WHILE NGM/AVN MORE AMBIGUOUS. THINK ETA ABILITY TO SEE TERRAIN
BETTER WUD MAKE IT A MORE CREDIBLE MODEL(S).

WITH FLACCID SFC FEATURES AND CONFUSED THERMAL FIELD...WILL LIKELY
MAKE BEST BET FOLLOWING UPPER FEATURES TRYING TO TIME AND PLACE
PRECIP. MODELS CREATE A GAGGLE OF SHORTWAVES WHICH IS SUPPORTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SEVERAL MINOR FEATURES EVIDENT IN
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS WRN PA MAY BE FIRST TO BLOOM
CONVECTION TODAY AS HEATING AND HUMIDITY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF PV MAX MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY. SERN SECTIONS PROGGED TO SEE
NVA AND LOW LEVEL COOL THETA-E ADVECTION. EVEN THERE HOWEVER
...INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THEN MOST OF THE REGION ENJOYS
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROF TRIES TO COAGULATE INTO
ONE MAIN FEATURE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF AREA TMRW. BOTTOM LINE IS
THINK MOS POPS ARE LOW AND ZONES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT SHUD
HAPPEN. STILL WILL BE A CHORE TRYING TO PLACE BEST TIMES AND PLACES
FOR SHORT TERM PRODUCTS THRU TMRW.

LA CORTE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-280000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PENNSYLVANIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 1996

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN KANSAS CITY INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WEAK FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
TODAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WHICH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH COULD CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LA CORTE