Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT SUN APR 30 1995

WRMFNT CONTS TO APRCH FCST AREA.  SHUD BE NR RED RVR BY 00Z.  STG
S/W SEEN ON WTR VPR LOOP HEADING TWRD FCST AREA.  MDL GRID DATA
SHOW STG UPR JET AXIS FROM CO TO CTRL OK...WITH MUCH OF FCST AREA
IN LFQ WHERE MDLS INDCT STG UPR DVRGNCE.  MDLS SHOW IDEAL SETUP
FOR WDSPRD CNVCTN ALNG/N OF WRMFNT ORGANIZING INTO COMPLEX LATE
TNGT...MUCH LIKE FRI NGT.  TSTMS ALRDY FIRING RAPIDLY ACRS ECTRL
OK SEEN ON 88D.  STGLY DIFFLUENT THCKNSS PTRN...DVLPG LLJ
CROSSING WRMFNT...AND STG DYNAMIC/ISNTRPC LIFT N OF WRMFNT
SUGGEST BACKBLDG CNVCTN ALNG/N OF WRMFNT...LEADG TO FF THREAT.
DONT KNOW HOW FAR NORTH HVY RNFL WL BE...BUT WITH FFG LOW ACRS
ENTIRE AREA AND MDLS SHOWG POTNTL FOR SGNFNCNT RNFL EVEN ACRS NRN
ZNS...WILL ISSUE FF WATCH FOR ALL ZNS FOR TNGT.  EVNG SHFT CAN
REFINE IF THREAT DCRS FOR SOME ZNS.

WL GO NR 100 POPS RW/TRW FOR TNGT...AND MENT PSBLTY OF HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS...AND HVY RN.  SVR WX PSBL EARLY...WITH THREAT
EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A HVY RNFL/FLD THREAT BY LATE TNGT.
TEMPS TNGT SHUD REMAIN AOA XPCTD EVNG SFC DWPT VALUES.

S/W AXIS MOVES ACRS AREA TMRW MRNG...ENDG PCPN.  WL GO WITH 30
POPS...40 POPS NW AR...FOR MRNG SHWRS...OTHRWS WL KEEP MSTLY
CLDY AS STG 850 MB LOW DVLPS AND MDLS SUGGEST CLDNSS WRAPPING
ARND LOW.  HI TMPS MAY BE SLGTLY BLO MOS DUE TO CLDNSS.

WL GO WITH DCRSG CLDNSS MON NGT.  HI PRES MOVES OVR AREA...AND
H8 TMPS ARE QUITE LOW.  WENT WITH TEMPS A LTL BLO MOS FOR LOWS.
FOR TUE...MAY GET SOME MRNG SUN...BUT MID/HI CLDS SHUD INCRS IN
AFTN IN ADVANCE OF NXT SYS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TUL 53/62 42/66 +30-           MLC 59/64 44/68 +30-
FYV 52/61 41/65 +400           FSM 56/65 45/68 +300
BVO 52/62 39/65 930-           IDB 60/70 48/69 +300

PW

.TUL...FFA TNGT OK ZNS 54>79 AND AR ZNS 1/2/10/11/19/29.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-011200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 30 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR DALLAS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO A DEVLOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  THE WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO
THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OFF TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND WILL THEN TRACK TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE
HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS IF THEY FALL
ON AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AbND EARLY SATURDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LATER FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT SUN APR 30 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....   ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

250 AM     RAMONA                    OK   0.88 INCH HAIL
04/29/95   WASHINGTON

330 AM     SPERRY                    OK   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/29/95   TULSA