Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 AM CDT SUN APR 30 1995

...POTNTL INCRSG FOR SGNFCNT WX EVENT FOR ERN OK/NW AR SWD...

LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS STG WRMFNT SETTING UP FROM AR/LA BRDR TO
JUST S OF DFW.  DWPTS S OF FNT IN 60S. ALOFT...PLENTY OF 850 MB
MOISTR SET TO ADVT N AS LLJ DVLPS THIS AFTN.  AT 500 MB...STG S/W
APRCHG NRN/CTRL RCKYS.  GRTST HGT FALLS SE OF S/W PLUS STG MID
LVL WNDS APRCHG BASE OF S/W INDICATES MDL FCSTS OF MOVG S/W ESE
TWRD FCST AREA ARE REASONABLE.  AT 250/300 MB...STG JET MOVING
ACRS WRN STATES.  WK JETSTRK ALSO FOUND OVR KS/SRN MO WHICH MAY
BE AIDING PCPN NOW ON 88D.

FOR REST OF TDAY...AS S/W APRCHS...LLJ SETS UP LEADING TO VRY STG
ISENTRPC LIFT OVR OK/WRN AR.  WITH ABUNDANT MOISTR BEING PUSHED
OVR WRMFNTL BDRY...XPCT SCTD RW/TRW ACRS PARTS OF AREA DURG AFTN.
WL GO WITH 40 OR 50 POPS FOR THIS AFTN.  TEMP FCST FOR THIS AFTN
VRY DFCLT.  THINK FCST TEMPS ARE A LTL TOO HIGH NRN/CTRL ZNS
WHERE ISENTRPC LIFT SHUD KEEP SKIES CLDY.  TEMPS ARND OR JUST
ABV 70 LOOK OKAY ATTM FOR SRN ZNS WHICH ARE ALREADY AOA 60.

VRY DFCLT YET VRY IMPORTANT FCST UPCOMING FOR TNGT.  GRIDDED
DATA LOOKS VRY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM FRI NGT IN SHOWING ALL
INGREDIENTS FOR LRG CNVCTV SYS TO DVLP ALNG/N OF WRMFNT.  YDAYS
HVY RNFL EVENT HAS LED TO XTRMLY LOW FFG VALUES.  HWVR...WL SVR
CNVCTN BE ABLE TO RPDLY DVLP ALNG/S OF WRMFNT OVR NRN TX AND HURT
CHCS FOR MAJOR OK/AR MCS?  THAT QSTN WL BE INVESTIGATED LATER.
ALL SIGNS DO POINT TO NEED FOR FF WATCH IN AFTN PKG.

PW

.TUL...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-011200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 30 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR DALLAS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO A DEVLOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  THE WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO
THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OFF TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND WILL THEN TRACK TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE
HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS IF THEY FALL
ON AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AbND EARLY SATURDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LATER FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT SUN APR 30 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....   ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

250 AM     RAMONA                    OK   0.88 INCH HAIL
04/29/95   WASHINGTON

330 AM     SPERRY                    OK   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/29/95   TULSA