Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CDT MON JUL 3 1995

FCST NOT EXACTLY CLEAR CUT THIS MORNING...CERTAINLY NOT YOUR TYPICAL
JULY FCST.

TSTMS IN NE OK THIS MORNING HAVE SENT OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AND DISSIPATE. THIS
PROCESS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE CLEAR SKIES THAT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PUNCHING INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.

PERHAPS I AM MISSING SOMETHING BUT I CANNOT SEE ALL THIS HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER HAPPENING LATER TODAY. ALL 3 MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A MONSTER CAP ACROSS ERN OK AND NW AR TODAY WITH SIGMA 784 MB
TEMPS IN THE 15-18C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. 700 MB TEMP AT 00Z HAD
ALREADY WARMED TO +11.4C AT AMA AND PROFILER DATA INDICATES 15-30 KNOTS
OF WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW ACROSS WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
CLEARING PUNCHING INTO ERN OK ATTM APPEARS TO BE THE ERN EXTENT OF THE
CAP AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FCST SIGMA 784 MB TEMP OF +14C AT
TUL AT 12Z.

THUS EXPECT CURRENT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MARCHING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND ONCE IT MOVES OUT OF NW AR...THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR
TODAY. SKY CONDITION AND TEMP FCST FOR TODAY IS A PROBLEM. SKIES SHOULD
BE SUNNY AT DAYBREAK IN THE WRN ZONES BUT CONCERNED THAT RAPID STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AND THAT THESE CLOUDS MAY BE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE CAP AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN EITHER THE
NGM OR AVN MOS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT WILL BE IF WE GET FULL SUN.
DEWPOINTS ALSO LIKELY TO REACH THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON SO TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO OUT OF CONTROL ANYWAY.

WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT IS THE NEXT QUESTION? I CAN ENVISION AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO SOMEHOW BREAKING THE CAP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IF SFC TEMPS CAN REACH AROUND 100. IF THIS HAPPENS...THESE
STORMS COULD REACH ERN OK OVERNIGHT IN AN ISOLATED FASHION. BOTH THE
NGM AND AVN ALSO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SPS AND ABI AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH THEN MOVES ACROSS MAINLY
EAST CENTRAL AND SE OK TONIGHT. IT COULD BE THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ABOVE THE CAP IN THE SPS AND ABI AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS ERN OK TONIGHT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL SHOTGUN 30%
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...THE CHANCES OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION TONIGHT LOOK SLIM TO NONE. WILL FCST MIN TEMPS
BASED ON NO PRECIP WHICH KEEPS MINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE NGM MOS AND WELL
ABOVE THE AVN MOS.

ON TUESDAY...MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADS ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NW PART OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A 40% CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
NW PART OF THE FCST AREA AND 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
WILL ONLY HAVE 20% POPS IN SE OK THOUGH WHERE THE CAP WILL REMAIN
STRONGEST AND WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING MID LEVEL
BASED CONVECTION AT 12Z. MAXES TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHICH
AGAIN IS WELL ABOVE BOTH THE NGM AND AVN MOS.

TSTM CHANCES WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS
FURTHER AND THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA. PRECIP MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK AND LIKELY CAPS CONVECTION IN ERN OK AGAIN.

TUL 90/75/90/69  1335    FSM 89/72/90/69  1325    MLC 91/76/92/69  1325
BVO 90/73/90/68  1344    FYV 86/73/88/68  9336    IDB 89/72/90/70  2324
BYV 85/69/87/67  9336

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-031200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 3 1993

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE
RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH
TO KINGSTON IN MADISON COUNTY ARKANSAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT
SHOULD SOON BEGIN A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT THAT WILL TAKE THEM INTO THE
RISK AREA.  THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  IN ADDITION...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.  IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY TOO WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA.