Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

18Z SFC ANALYS INDCTS A OUTFLO BNDRY ACRS ECNTL OK.  XPCT TSTMS
TO DVLP ALG BNDRY WITH DIFNTL HEATING IN A VERY UNSTBL AMS.  MOST
OF THE ACTVTY IN SERN OK SHUD END BFR MID DUE TO LACK OF UPR LVL
SUPPORT.  HWVR LT THIS EVE AND INTO THE NGT...XPCT FOCUS TO SHIFT
BACK INTO NERN OK ONCE AGAIN.  STG TSTMS FIRING IN SWRN OK WL BGN
TO ADVNC NEWD.  ETA/NGM GRDD DATA SHOWS LO LVL JET AXIS SLIDING
EWD OUT OF WRN OK INTO ERN OK OVRNGT.  RMNTS OF BNDRY MAY RETREAT
A BIT NWD WITH HVY RAINFALL XPCTD NORTH OF BNDRY.  THUS WITH NERN
OK QUITE SATRTD...WL ISSUE A FFA FOR MUCH OF NERN OK TNGT.

AFT THIS ROUND OF TSTMS ENDS SAT MRNG...LEFTOVR BNDRYS IN UNSTBL
AMS WL PRBLY AGAIN BCM THE NEXT FOCUS SAT AFTN AND EVE.  AFT THAT
ROUND OF TSTMS ENDS...APRCHG CDFNT AND UPR SYS MOVING INTO CNTL
PLAINS WL GIVE EOK/NWRN AR ONE MORE GOOD SHOT OF TSTMS SAT NGT
AND ERY SUN.  HOPING CDFNT WL PUSH ENUF DRY AIR INTO NERN OK SUN
TO KEEP ANY LINGERING ACVTY IN SERN OK SUN AFTN.

PRELIMS
TUL 66/81/63/75 7562
FSM 69/86/66/80 5464
MLC 68/84/65/78 6564
BVO 64/80/61/73 7561
FYV 67/81/63/74 6563
IDB 71/89/67/82 4355
BYV 67/81/63/74 6564

..11..

.TUL...FFA FOR MUCH OF NERN OK TNGT (ZNS 54>67).

OKZ054>077-ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A LARGE PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAWNEE OKLAHOMA
TO GROVE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
OF THIS LINE.

TULSA...MCALESTER...FORT SMITH AND FAYETTEVILLE ARE ALL IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. BARTLESVILLE IS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS ALLOWED
A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR HENRYETTA
OKLAHOMA TO FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.

AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
RESULT FROM SOME OF THE STORMS. WIND FIELDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR
A TORNADO WILL BE IN AN AREA ABOUT 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE
40.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED TO
MAINTAIN A HIGH STATE OF READINESS THROUGH TONIGHT.