Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

COMPLEX MVG ACRS FA ATTM W/PRECIP STILL DVLPG OUT W. LOOKS LIKE
WET PD SHLD CONT THRU SHORT RANGE FCST. THE DETAILS OF THE FCST
ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. BUT BELIEVE THAT CRNT COMPLEX
SHLD DIMINISH AS THE MRNG WEARS ON. WL MENTION SCT RW/TRW IN ZNS.
GOOD SLY FLOW SHLD HELP ATMOS RECOVER DURG THE AFTN. BELIEVE
SKIES SHLD BCM PTLY CLDY SO SOME HEATING SHLD HELP IN THAT
REGARD. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS GOOD S/W ROUNDING BASE OF TROF AND
HEADED INTO SRN NM. THIS SHLD ROTATE NNE W OF FA AND FIRE MORE
TRW. BDRYS SHLD REMAIN ACRS FA FM CRNT ACTVTY BUT FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE HERE. SO THINK TRW WOULD HAVE TO MV INTO
ZNS FM W INITIALLY. THINKING IS THAT BEST CHC OF AFTN TRW WL BE
IN NW ZNS W/POPS LISTED BLO REFLECTING THAT. WL MAKE APPROPRIATE
UPWARD ADJS BEFORE SENDING OUT ZFP AND CCF FOR ONGOING RW/TRW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COMPLEX SHLD ORGANIZE TNGT AND MV ACRS FA
AGAIN. ETA SHOWS GOOD FORCING ARND H7 AND ALSO H3 DIV AS NRN PART
OF FA IS IN RR QUAD OF UPR JET. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABT HOW FAR S
RW/TRW WL XTND BUT MAY BUMP UP POPS AT MLC AT LAST MIN. SEEMS
THAT MAIN THREAT FOR HVY RAIN WL BE TNGT W/UPR DIV AND H85 THETA-
E AXIS LYING ACRS AREA. W/BREAK IN PRECIP XPCTD DURG THE DAY WL
LET CRNT FFA EXPIRE AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HVY PRECIP TNGT.
DAY SHIFT WL HV TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS MANY PARTS OF NE OK HV
RECEIVED AN ADDITIONAL IN OR MORE JUST SINCE 00Z. HOPEFULLY THE
THREAT AREA WL BCM MORE WELL DEFINED AS THE DAY GOES ON AS WELL.

WL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HI INTO SAT. SCT RW/TRW SHLD STILL BE ONGOING
FM OVRNGT CNVCTN. ALSO FNT APRCHS FA DURG THE DAY. MDLS NOT REAL
CLEAR ON WHERE FNT IS. ETA SEEMS TO SHOWS PRES TROF MVG THRU MANY
OF THE ZNS BUT BNDRY LYR WNDS REMAIN S THRU 48 HRS. FLOW IS
WEAKER AND FORCING DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT BUT UPR DIV STILL
REMAINS ACRS FA IN ADDITION TO SOME LO LVL CONV NR APRCHG FNT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS WENT NR PERSISTENCE FOR TDY. STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER FAN NMBRS FOR TNGT DUE TO XPCTD PRECIP. BY SAT MAINLY
SPLIT THE DIFF BTWN FAN AND FWC.

WL STILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO SAT NGT AS AVN SHOWS UVM ACRS FA 00Z
SUN BUT THEN SAGGING SWD BY 12Z SUN. SO PRECIP SHLD BE COMING TO
AN END BY THEN. WL KEEP SUN DRY W/SKIES BCMG PTLY CLDY. BUT DRY
WX SHLD PREVAIL THRU REST OF XTNDED PDS AS LARGE UPR RDG BEGINS
TO BUILD ACRS MUCH OF WRN 2/3DS OF THE US.
,
PRELIM NMBRS
TUL 83/67/81 355    FSM 90/69/86 224
MLC 90/69/83 234    BVO 84/64/82 455
FYV 86/68/81 245    IDB 91/71/89 113
BYV 87/66/81 245

07

.TUL...NONE.

ARZ001-090830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTY
ARKANSAS...

AT 257 PM WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BENTON COUNTY ARKANSAS.  THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...AND LOWELL AREAS
THROUGH 330 AM.

THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...40 TO 50
MPH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....      ST   EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

450 PM         3 NORTH OF NEW ALLUWE    OK   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/08/95       NOWATA CO

725 PM         2 EAST OF BRENTWOOD      AR   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/08/95       WASHINGTON CO

720 PM         DEVILS DEN TO BRENTWOOD  AR   WIND DAMAGE
06/08/95       WASHINGTON CO                 TREES DOWN...WINDS
                                             ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH

800 PM         4 NORTH OF ST. PAUL      AR   0.88 INCH HAIL
06/08/95       MADISON CO

1146 PM        OWASSO                   OK   0.75 INCH HAIL AND 60 TO
06/08/95       TULSA CO                      65 MPH WINDS

OKZ065-066-068-069-070-071-072-073-074-075-076-091115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE PAST FEW HOUR ENDING
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING.  AS A RESULT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

OKZ065-066-068-069-070-071-072-073-074-075-076-091115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE PAST FEW HOUR ENDING
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING.  AS A RESULT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 59R1 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

OKZ054>077-ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MODERATE
RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO MCALESTER.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
6 AM. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
BY MID AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN KANSAS
OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A DRYLINE IN THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DRYLINE WITH
THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE SOON AFTER THEY FORM.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ENHANCES THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN ITS
VICINITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM TODAY.

OKZ054>077-ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MODERATE
RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO MCALESTER.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
6 AM. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
BY MID AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN KANSAS
OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A DRYLINE IN THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DRYLINE WITH
THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE SOON AFTER THEY FORM.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ENHANCES THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN ITS
VICINITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM TODAY.