Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 AM CDT WED MAY 17 1995

12Z H8 ANALYS CONFIRMS PROGS OF STG LO LVL JET TRANSLATING EWD INTO
EOK TDA WITH FWD INDCTG WNDS OF 65 KTS.  H7 ANALYS INDCTS CAPPED MID
LVLS ABT TO BRK WITH COLD AIR ADVCTN.  H5 ANALYS INDCTS STG UPR SYS
WITH 95 KT WNDS ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF.  SFC ANALYS INDCTS BNDRY
NORTH OF FA.  SELS HAS SVR WX THREAT HNDLD WELL WITH CURRENT WTCHS.
CONSIDERED FFA BUT BLV HVYST RAINFALL WL CONCNTRT NORTH OF SFC BNDRY
WITH EOK/NWAR UNDER MORE OF A SVR WX THREAT THIS AFTN.  MAY HV TO
CONSIDER FFA FOR NERN OK/NWRN AR TNGT BUT WL WAIT TIL AFTN PCKG.

..11..

.TUL...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-181200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT WED MAY 17 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT EXTENDED BACK INTO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING THE DRYLINE WITH IT. THE DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...THE CAP THAT HAS
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
WEAKEN THUS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE CAP
HAD ALREADY WEAKENED. THE STORMS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THE NIGHT. AFTER THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BY...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY
AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER SOME TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUIRED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.