Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  STG/SVR STORMS NOW MOVG ACROSS WRN PTNS OF
FA... AND XPCT THEM TO CONT TO INTENSIFY AS THEY TRACK E INTO
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE  AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
DWPTS IN 65 TO 72 DEGREE RANGE.  CURRENT MODIFIED NORMAN SOUNDING
INDICATING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OK/NW ARK
WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  VAD/PROFILER DATA ALSO
INDICATING INCREASING HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 UNITS ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN OK/NW AR AND IN PARTS OF NE TX.

SFC DATA SHOWING SFC LOW OVR TX PH WITH WM FRONT EXTDG EWD ACROSS
N OC INTO AR.  DRYLINE XTDS S ACROSS E TX PH INTO SW TX...STLT
DATA SHOWING NEW LN OF STORMS DVLPG ALONG BOUNDARY.  NGM HAS
SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN BRINGING THIS DRYLINE E INTO OK AND
IN FACT IN SLOWER THAN THE ETA MODEL.  GENERALLY THE NGM HAS BEEN
FASTER...IN THE PAST WITH BRINGING THE DRYER AIR EWD.  BECAUSE OF
THIS...HV DECIDED TO CONTINUE PRECIP CHCS INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS WRN FA WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE E ZNS THRU THE DAY.

BECAUSE OF THE MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...HV DECIDED TO ISSUE A FFA FOR ALL OF THE
FA...WITH NMCQPF INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINS IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK.  BEST THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE
MODELS APPEARS TO BE IN NE TX THRU THE NIGHT...SO HEAVIEST RAINS
WL PROBABLY OCCUR IN SRN ZONES.  FFA MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED
INTO MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF FA IF HEAVY STORMS CONTINUE.

TUL 062/073 054/078 056 8400
FSM 064/074 055/079 056 9610
MLC 065/075 056/080 057 9510
BVO 062/073 053/078 XXX 8400
FYV 063/072 055/078 XXX 9510
IDB 065/076 055/081 XXX 7610
4M1 063/072 058/078 XXX 9510

/16

.TUL...FFA OKZ054>077-ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029 TONIGHT.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-081200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WITH THE
GROUND SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.