Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

POTENT STORM SYSTEM NOW OVR NEW MEXICO TO HEAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A COMPLEX OF SVR STORMS OVR NW TX INTO
SW OK APPEARS THAT IT WILL HEAD INTO SW PTNS OF FA BY MID
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 100 KT+ JET MAX OVR NEW MEX.  XPCT
THIS JET TO SHIFT NNE THRU THIS AFT...PLACING AT LEAST WRN OK
INTO RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF JET.

SFC PATTERN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN E NM WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING S
INTO WRN TX BOOTHEEL.  NEW ETA DATA SHOWING THIS DRYLINE TO MAKE
LTL EWD PROGRESSION INTO WRN OK AND IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PLAINS.  CAPE VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY
HIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BY ETA MODEL...WITH VALUES IN
1500-2300 J/KG RANGE FROM CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX.  ADAP DATA
SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTG ACROSS TX PH...SO NEW
THUNDERSTORM DVLPMNT WL LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVR THIS AREA THIS AFT.

WK WM FRONT EXTNDG ENEWD INTO NW OK THEN SE INTO SW ARKANSAS.
88D ALSO SHWG CELLULAR BAND OF STORMS EXTNDG N OF FRONT FROM SE
KS TO E OF FSM...BUT THESE ARE MOVG NE AWAY FROM FA.

SVR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS AREA
BY TONIGHT...WITH NMC QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY LATER THIS AFT
INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPS IN PREVIOUS PCKG LUK REASONABLE...AND >WILL ONLY
NEED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF PCKG.

/16

.TUL...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-081200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WITH THE
GROUND SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.