Tornado Warning 4, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
405 AM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

PCPN CAUSED BY INCRG SLY LO LVL FLO OVERRUNNING STNRY FNT ACRS XTRM NRN
OK SEEMS TO BE BREAKING OUT IN KS AT THIS TIME...WD EXPECT THIS TO STAY
MOSTLY N OF THE FA...BUT WL MENTION 1ST PD POPS IN NRN ZONES. ATMOS OVR
RMNDR OF OK AND WRN PART OF N TX STILL STGLY CAPPED BUT WILL PUT LO POPS
IN THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN FOR CHC OF SOMETHING GETTING STARTED ALG
DRYLN. MUCH BTR PCPN CHCS LATER TNGT AND MON AHD OF PAC FNT AS CAA ARND
THE H7 LVL REMOVES THE CAP. WL USE ETA FOR TIMING OF SFC FTRS WITH RAIN
CHCS TAPERING OFF FM W TO E MON AFTN AND NGT. WENT A LTL ABV FWC TEMPS
FOR TNGT DUE CLDS...WND...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED.

FCSTID=12
HBR   79  58  75  48 / 20  40  20  10
OKC   79  62  75  50 / 10  30  40  20
SPS   83  63  77  50 / 10  30  30  20
GAG   77  55  73  42 / 30  40  20  10
PNC   78  62  74  50 / 30  30  40  30
DUA   84  66  79  53 / 10  20  50  40

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-161930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
12350 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND FROM WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.  A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF AMARILLO...ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT MIDDAY.  A DRY LINE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE FRONT IN WEST TEXAS...JUST A LITTLE EAST OF
LUBBOCK.  ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD PUSH IS EXPECTED ON THE DRY LINE TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE EAST OF AN ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO KANSAS.

LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEAMED WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STORMS...
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A MUCH
BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH THE I-35N CORRIDOR TO KANSAS...SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  OTHERS
SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS TO
PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

DM

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-162030-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
105 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

CORRECTED FOR HEADING ONLY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND FROM WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.  A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF AMARILLO...ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT MIDDAY.  A DRY LINE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE FRONT IN WEST TEXAS...JUST A LITTLE EAST OF
LUBBOCK.  ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD PUSH IS EXPECTED ON THE DRY LINE TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE EAST OF AN ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO KANSAS.

LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEAMED WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STORMS...
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A MUCH
BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO KANSAS...SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  OTHERS
SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS TO
PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATE TONIvGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

DM