Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
155 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

NOT MUCH TIME FOR DISC DUE TO RPDLY DVLPG SVR STMS IN FCST AREA. WK FNT
SHUD FALL IN PLACE BHND NRLY STNRY DRYLN ACRS NWRN OK...THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NW LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON. PREFER SLOER ETA SLON GVN THE W COAST
SYS IS STILL DIGGING AT MIDDAY. THIS WOULD DELAY DRYLN SURGE A FEW
HOURS. STG WINDS FLDS AND HI CAPE SUG SUPERCELL POTL TNGT AND ESP
MONDAY. MON NGT-TUE SHUD SEE CLRG AND SUBSIDENCE WITH TREND TWD COOLER
TEMPS.  NEXT CHC OF PCPN WL BEGIN WED AS SWLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
RETURN. DETAILS OF EFP QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO TIMING OF STG WVS...BUT
INCRG MSTR AND SWLY FLOW ALFT SUG CHC OF STMS THRU PD WITH SLO WARMING.

..16..

HBR   60  79  47  73 / 40  40  10  0
OKC   66  78  50  72 / 30  50  10  0
SPS   67  80  52  75 / 20  50  10  0
GAG   53  71  42  69 / 20  20  0   0
PNC   62  76  47  69 / 50  50  10  0
DUA   66  79  54  75 / 10  40  50  10

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-161930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
12350 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND FROM WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.  A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF AMARILLO...ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT MIDDAY.  A DRY LINE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE FRONT IN WEST TEXAS...JUST A LITTLE EAST OF
LUBBOCK.  ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD PUSH IS EXPECTED ON THE DRY LINE TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE EAST OF AN ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO KANSAS.

LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEAMED WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STORMS...
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A MUCH
BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH THE I-35N CORRIDOR TO KANSAS...SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  OTHERS
SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS TO
PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

DM

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-162030-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
105 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

CORRECTED FOR HEADING ONLY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND FROM WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.  A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF AMARILLO...ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT MIDDAY.  A DRY LINE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE FRONT IN WEST TEXAS...JUST A LITTLE EAST OF
LUBBOCK.  ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD PUSH IS EXPECTED ON THE DRY LINE TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE EAST OF AN ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO KANSAS.

LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEAMED WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STORMS...
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A MUCH
BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALVA TO TALOGA LINE...THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO KANSAS...SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  OTHERS
SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS TO
PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATE TONIvGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

DM

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-162230-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
315 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND WEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS.  A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WARM...MOIST SIDE OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  A DRY LINE REMAINS
OUT TO THE WEST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST TEXAS...JUST EAST
OF  LUBBOCK.  AS THESE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO A
REGION WITH A STRONGER CAP...THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.  LITTLE PUSH EASTWARD ON THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEAMED WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STORMS...
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A MUCH
BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER GROUPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.  SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD ALSO LISTEN FOR
LATER  FORECASTS AND UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS TO PREPARE FOR
ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

DM