Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 032023
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

UPR LOW REMAINS OVR NERN UT WITH SVRL SHTWVS ROTATING TWD FA. ONE WV
MOVG NEWD THRU NM WITH ANOTHER ONECOMING INTO WRN AZ. SFC BNDRY ACRS
SCNTL OK WHICH WL LKLY FOCUS CNVCTV DVLPMNT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST
IS CNVTV-INDUCED VORT MAX BTWN CDS AND LTS WHICH IS BARELY CRAWLING EWD
ALG BDNRY. EXPCT MAIN PCPN AREA OF INITIATE IN TX PNHDL AND MV INTO WRN
ZNS THIS EVENG. ALSO PSBL THAT CNVTN WL FORM E OF CNVTV VORT IN SCNTRL
ZNS...BUT THIS AREA HAS STGR CAP AND WONT GET AS MUCH SFC HEATING AS
FURTHER W. WL ISSUE FFA FOR MOST OF WRN OK...BUT AREA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTNDD FURTHER E IF CNVTN REMAINS ORGANIZED INTO CNTRL ZNS OR IF LCL
COOLING ALF WITH CNVCTV VORT MAX IS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP. PDS OF TRW
EXPCTD THRU SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF IN THE EXTDD PD. ..04..

GAG 60/81/61/82 8464    PNC 65/82/65/82 4354    HBR 68/85/65/85 7464
SPS 69/88/68/89 6344    OKC 65/82/65/82 4354    DUA 70/86/70/84 3344

.OKC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT WRN OK ZNS 4>6..9>11..14>17..21>23..
       33>38..44.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-041130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO
DUNCAN...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
WIND PROFILE MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THEY LIKELY WILL CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN AN EXPANDED AREA OF FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG ANY OF SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES ALREADY IN PLACE.  THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FAR
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY...REINFORCED THIS
MORNING BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WILL EXTEND ALONG THE RED RIVER WEST
TO THE DRY LINE.  THE INTERSECTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY THIS
EVENING.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RS

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-041130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO
DUNCAN...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
WIND PROFILE MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THEY LIKELY WILL CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN AN EXPANDED AREA OF FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG ANY OF SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES ALREADY IN PLACE.  THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FAR
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY...REINFORCED THIS
MORNING BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WILL EXTEND ALONG THE RED RIVER WEST
TO THE DRY LINE.  THE INTERSECTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY THIS
EVENING.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RS