Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
345 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

ACTV CONVECTIVE WX PTRN WL CHG LTL NEXT CUPL OF DAYS. DRYLN WL RMN OVR W
TX THRU PD AS UPR TROF OVR UT SHFTS EWD THRU SUN. MDT FLOW OF GULF AIR
AT LOW LEVELS AND COOLING WTH APPCHG UPR TROF WL SUPPORT CONTD HI CAPES
THRUOT RGN. COOLING OVR LWR PTN OF TROPOSPHERE MAY BE OVRDONE THOUGH.
EXAMININATION OF H7 TEMP PROGS AT 03/00 HR AND 02/24 HR SHOW MDLS WERE
TOO COOL AT THIS LVL. LACK OF OBSVD CONVECTION OVR SWRN TX AND SERN NM
INDICATES SOM CAPPING PRESENT. WL BACK OFF POPS SOMWHAT ACRS SRN PTNS OF
AREA FOR THIS REASON.

APPCHG TROF WL ALSO RESULT IN INCRG WND FLDS AND IMPVD SHR/SR HELICITY
VALUES THUS SOM SUPERCELL STMS PSBL. PREV HVY RNS ACRS PORTIONS OF AREA
COMBINED WTH HI PW VALUES WL PRESENT POTL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AS WELL.

DRYLN OVR WEST TX WL PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WTH
THESE STMS MOVING INTO FA LATE AFTNS AND EVNGS. SECOND MECHANISM LIKELY
WL BE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS...WHEREVER THEY MAY BE...AT TIME OF
CONVECTIVE TEMP. UNCERTAINTY IN LATER FOCUS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO BE TOO
SPECIFIC ABOUT POPS AND HVY RAFL. BEST CHC OF ORGANIZED SVR WUD APPEAR
TO BE WEST WHR SHR AND INSTBY WL MAXIMIZE LATE AFTN/EVNG.  ..16..

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-041130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO
DUNCAN...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
WIND PROFILE MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THEY LIKELY WILL CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN AN EXPANDED AREA OF FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG ANY OF SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES ALREADY IN PLACE.  THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FAR
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY...REINFORCED THIS
MORNING BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WILL EXTEND ALONG THE RED RIVER WEST
TO THE DRY LINE.  THE INTERSECTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY THIS
EVENING.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RS

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-041130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO
DUNCAN...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
WIND PROFILE MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THEY LIKELY WILL CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN AN EXPANDED AREA OF FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG ANY OF SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES ALREADY IN PLACE.  THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FAR
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY...REINFORCED THIS
MORNING BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WILL EXTEND ALONG THE RED RIVER WEST
TO THE DRY LINE.  THE INTERSECTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY THIS
EVENING.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RS