Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
405 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

ACTIVE PD FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ACRS OK. CDFNT NOW NR NWRN CORNER OF OK
PRBLY NOT COMING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH UNTIL LATE TNGT AND WED. LEAD S/W FM
THE WRN U.S. UPR TROF EVIDENT ATTM IN INCRG CLDS AND ECHOES ACRS WRN TX.
IF PCPN SPRDS INTO WRN COUNTIES THIS MRNG IT WILL LIKELY MAKE SVR
DVLPMNT THIS AFTN AND EVE MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...IN ANY CASE THE
MODELS SECNARIO OF SLOW MOVING FNT TNGT AND WED WITH WDSPRD TSTMS IS
GENLY ACPTD. USED A COMP BTWN FWC AND COOLER FAN TEMPS IN LATER PDS. WL
MENTION HVY RAIN IN NRN OK COUNTIES FOR TNGT...THIS AREA WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR PSBL FF WATCH LATER TDA.

FCSTID=12
HBR   84  64  76  57 / 40  70  50  20
OKC   82  64  75  57 / 30  70  50  30
SPS   85  67  78  61 / 30  70  40  30
GAG   76  57  63  52 / 50  70  40  30
PNC   81  63  71  55 / 30  70  50  30
DUA   83  70  78  61 / 20  60  60 F 30

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-241200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS AND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM PERRY TO ERICK. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHWEST AND
EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MAY MOVE TO AROUND A PONCA
CITY TO LAWTON LINE THIS EVENING.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE
AREA SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ADDING TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  BECAUSE THERE IS A
LAYER OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET ABOVE THE
GROUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  DURING THIS
TIME...MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD ACT IN CONCERT TO ERODE THIS WARM AIR LAYER OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS.  ONCE THIS LAYER OF WARM
AIR IS OVERCOME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART
OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECAST
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS ZAFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

KWB