Tornado Warning 56, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
336 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

CDFNT SHOWS UP WELL ON THE MESONET FROM GRANT COUNTY TO EAST OF ALTUS.
FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO PRESS SLOLY SWD TODAY AND IS ALRDY SOUTH OF
12 TO 24 HOUR MODEL FCSTS. THINK FNT WILL STALL OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY SWD
THIS EVENING WITH STG WAVE RMNG TO THE WEST. STG/SVR STMS HAVE DVLPD
THIS AFTN IN VCNTY OF THE BNDRY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONT TONIGHT AS S/W
LIFTS NEWD. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ESP ALG AND NORTH OF BNDRY AS STG H8 JET
OF 40 TO 50 KTS TONIGHT OVRRNS SHALLOW CDFNT. WITH UNCERTAINITY
AS TO WHERE FNT WILL END UP WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FFA ATTM BUT WL
MENTION HVY RAIN IN ZONES. FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND WED AS WAVE MOVS BY SHIFTING SVR/HVY RAIN THRT INTO SERN
ZONES. WILL MAINTAIN POPS THRU PD AS SHALLOW COOL AMS REMAINS OVR THE
AREA WITH SWLY UPR FLO CONTG TO EJECT S/WS OVR THE AREA. WITH NGM WAY
OFF ON FNTL POSN FWC TMPS ARE SUSPECT AND WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD
SIGNIFICANTLY.

FCSTID=02
HBR   55  66  53  66 / 100 70  40  40
OKC   57  69  55  69 / 100 80  40  30
SPS   62  73  58  72 / 100 80  40  40
GAG   48  58  45  60 / 80  60  30  40
PNC   55  63  50  63 / 90  70  30  30
DUA   68  78  59  71 / 30  80  80  50

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-241200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS AND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM PERRY TO ERICK. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHWEST AND
EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MAY MOVE TO AROUND A PONCA
CITY TO LAWTON LINE THIS EVENING.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE
AREA SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ADDING TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  BECAUSE THERE IS A
LAYER OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET ABOVE THE
GROUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  DURING THIS
TIME...MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD ACT IN CONCERT TO ERODE THIS WARM AIR LAYER OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS.  ONCE THIS LAYER OF WARM
AIR IS OVERCOME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART
OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECAST
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS ZAFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

KWB

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
          ....CROUNTY LOCATION....

255 PM    CROWELL                 TX     1.00 INCH HAIL 3 MILES SOUTH
05/23/95  FOARD                          6 MILES WEST OF CROWELL.

MCCAMMON

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
          ....COUNTY LOCATION....

240 PM    CROWELL                 TX     2.75 INCH HAIL 12 MILES
05/23/95  FOARD                          SOUTHWEST OF CROWELL.

300 PM   MOUNTAIN PARK            OK     .88 INCH HAIL 1 SOUTH OF
05/23/95 KIOWA              x             OF MOUTAIN PARK.

MCCAMMON

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
          ....COUNTY LOCATION....

312 PM    BENJAMIN                 TX     1.75 INCH HAIL 15 MILES
05/23/95  KNOX                            NORTH OF BENJAMIN.

MCCAMMON

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
          ....COUNTY LOCATION....

330 PM    CROWELL                   TX     2.50 INCH HAIL 10 MILES
05/23/95  FOARD                            SOUTH OF CROWELL.

340 PM    LOCKETT                   TX     .88 INCH HAIL 7 MILES
05/23/95  WILBARGER                        SOUTHWEST OF LOCKETT.

MCCAMMON