Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT, NC
207 PM EST FRI JAN 6 1995

VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICAL SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT ESTRN NC TONIGHT AND
SAT.  MAIN PROBLEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WILL BE GALES AND HIGH SURF
ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EXAMINATION OF 12Z GRIDDED DATA REVEALS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX LATE TONIGHT AND ERLY SAT.  ESTRN NC WILL COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET.  THIS WILL ACT WITH
VRY STRNG LOW LVL FORCING (850 MB JET 60 KT) TO PRODUCE STRNG LIFT OVR
THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH NGM L.I. MAY BE OVERDONE...WITH THIS MUCH ENERGY ARND
IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO GET THINGS COOKING.  THE FAST MOVENMNT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRNG WNDS TO THE SFC WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SPEED AND DIR SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENUF FOR ISOLD
TORNADOES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF PCPN STARTED COMING OFFF THE WATER WHERE COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRRING.  WITH STRNG WAA ADVECTION TEMPS WILL NOT
FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES AND MAY EVEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING.

FOR THE MARINE FORECAST...GRIDDED DATA...FOUS AND MRP GUID ALL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR 12-18 HRS TONIGHT AND SAT.  WITH
STRNG WINDS PRODUCING 10 FT SEAS WE WOULD LIKE TO ISSUE A HEAVY SURF ADV
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH.  EAST-WEST FACING BEACHES WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE TO EROSION.  NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH COASTAL FLOODING AS EVENT
WILL BE BRIEF AND HIGH TIDES SAT WILL BE THE LOWEST OF THE MONTH.
PALPAM1 PROGRAM INDICATES SOME MINOR SOUND FLOODING POSSIBLE ROANOKE
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF INLAND HYDE/DARE COUNTIES.  WILL HANDLE WITH
MWS.

EXPECT CWF ARND 3 PM.

THANKS ILM FOR INPUT.

.MHX...GALE WARNG  S OF VA BEACH TO THE LITTLE RIVER INLET.
       HEAVY SURF ADV FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH.

JME

NCZ080-095-093-090-079-092-091-029-098-094-044-070545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
1143 PM EST FRI JAN 6 1995

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 5
AM...

AT 1140 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN NEWPORT SHOWED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 50 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING
AREAS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO WILLIAMSTON WEST TO INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH
1230 AM.

PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
ALONG WITH QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE RAINFALL.

IF THE WEATHER BECOMES UNUSUALLY THREATENING...SEEK SAFE SHELTER
IMMEDIATEDLY.  LIS2TEN TO LOCAL TV...RADIO OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JH

NCZ080-095-093-090-079-092-091-029-098-094-044-070545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
1143 PM EST FRI JAN 6 1995

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 5
AM...

AT 1140 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN NEWPORT SHOWED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 50 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING
AREAS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO WILLIAMSTON WEST TO INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH
1230 AM.

PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
ALONG WITH QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE RAINFALL.

IF THE WEATHER BECOMES UNUSUALLY THREATENING...SEEK SAFE SHELTER
IMMEDIATEDLY.  LISTEN TO LOCAL TV...RADIO OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JH