Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT MON MAY 22 1995

RAIN LUKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH
ETA/NGM SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND
TMRW. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS TONIGHT THE NGM BRINGS
SOME DRIER AIR AT 700 WHILE THE ETA KEEPS THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.
BOTH MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS THRU
THE PD. LEFT FRONT QUAD ENTERS THE PICTURE BETWEEN 24 AND 30 HRS AND
SPEED MAX TRAVELS OVER CWA DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN S/W OVER CA WILL
REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH THE PD AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEND IMPULSES
ACROSS THE CWA THRU TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOOKING AT THE I300 SFC
LUKS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END BRIEFLY TMRW MORNING THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TMRW AFTN. HOWEVER WITH THE DIFFLUENCE THROUGH THE AREA BLV IT
WILL BE AN ON GOING EVENT AS THE S/W CONTINUES TO TRIGGER MORE
ACTIVITY. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING BOUNDARY PASSING THRU THE AREA
TMRW MORNING BUT OVERUNNING WILL CONTINUE.  WILL STICK CLOSE TO FWC
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS.

RSL 58/64 95  SLN 58/65 95
ICT 64/75 87  HUT 63/75 87
CNU 65/80 57

COX

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>073-082-083-091>101-230500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KANSAS
1239 PM CDT MON MAY 22 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:

BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
BUTLER      ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MC PHERSON  RUSSELL  SUMNER
CHASE       HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

ALLEN       CHEROKEE    GREENWOOD    NEOSHO
BOURBON     CRAWFORD    LABETTE      WILSON
CHAUTAUQUA  ELK         MONTGOMERY   WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND TO COTTONWOOD FALLS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IS FORECAST TO
REACH SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH
WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER MOST OF THE REGION TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.  SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
WEST OF A SALINA TO ARKANSAS CITY LINE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
BE HIGH.  THIS THREAT IS ESPECIALLY HIGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS POSTED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WEST
OF A EUREKA TO SEDAN LINE.   ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE REQUESTED.

HOWERTON