Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 1995

COMPLEX PATN TNGT WITH SVRL SCENERIOS PSBL. KNOWN FACTS: TSTMS
ALRDY GOING OVR NE AND W OF RSL.  ABUNDANT MOIST FM SFC-850
EVERYWHERE.  S/W IN SATL LOOPS MOVG SE NR THE NW NE BRDR.  40 KT
300 MB SPD MAX PROGGED ACRS KS TNGT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW IN SE KS.
850 MB WAA FM SW-NE ACRS ST.  18Z SFC MAP HAS A WK SFC BNDRY NR A
HLC-ICT LN.  FCST SNDGS MOST LOC APPR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT CAP TO
REQUIRE SOME FORCING TO KICK OFF TSTMS.  LARGEST POS AREAS ARE
ACRS CEN/SCEN SXNS...IN AREA ALSO PROGGED TO HV COOLG ALF TNGT.
LESS CERTAIN FACTS: ETA/NGM DISAGREEMENT IN LOC OF 850 MB WFNT/
BNDRY OVRNGT.  ETA APRS TO KEEP IN TO THE N WHILE NGM HAS IT
DIVIDING CWA FM NW-SE.  SPECULATIONS: TSTMS IN NE LKLY TO
MV/PROPAGATE INTO NE KS OVRNGT...AND COULD MV ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF CWA.  TSTMS ALNG NWRN CWA SHUD REMAIN SLOW MOVG UNTIL
INFLUENCE OF S/WV OR SPD MAX GETS CLOSER.  THREAT OF SVR OVRNGT
IN MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH ONLY MDT INSTABILITY...AND
LACK OF STG WAA AT 850-700 MB...WOULD SEEM TO MINIMIZE DERECHO
THREAT.  MCS HOWEVER...DOES APPR LKLY...BUT ITS EXACT TRACK NOT
CLR ATTM.

RSL 68/96 52  SLN 68/96 52
ICT 70/93 33  HUT 70/94 33
CNU 73/91 34

HOWERTON