Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 1995

COMPLEX PATN TNGT WITH SVRL SCENERIOS PSBL. KNOWN FACTS: TSTMS
ALRDY GOING OVR NE AND W OF RSL.  ABUNDANT MOIST FM SFC-850
EVERYWHERE.  S/W IN SATL LOOPS MOVG SE NR THE NW NE BRDR.  40 KT
300 MB SPD MAX PROGGED ACRS KS TNGT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW IN SE KS.
850 MB WAA FM SW-NE ACRS ST.  18Z SFC MAP HAS A WK SFC BNDRY NR A
HLC-ICT LN.  FCST SNDGS MOST LOC APPR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT CAP TO
REQUIRE SOME FORCING TO KICK OFF TSTMS.  LARGEST POS AREAS ARE
ACRS CEN/SCEN SXNS...IN AREA ALSO PROGGED TO HV COOLG ALF TNGT.
LESS CERTAIN FACTS: ETA/NGM DISAGREEMENT IN LOC OF 850 MB WFNT/
BNDRY OVRNGT.  ETA APRS TO KEEP IN TO THE N WHILE NGM HAS IT
DIVIDING CWA FM NW-SE.  SPECULATIONS: TSTMS IN NE LKLY TO
MV/PROPAGATE INTO NE KS OVRNGT...AND COULD MV ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF CWA.  TSTMS ALNG NWRN CWA SHUD REMAIN SLOW MOVG UNTIL
INFLUENCE OF S/WV OR SPD MAX GETS CLOSER.  THREAT OF SVR OVRNGT
IN MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH ONLY MDT INSTABILITY...AND
LACK OF STG WAA AT 850-700 MB...WOULD SEEM TO MINIMIZE DERECHO
THREAT.  MCS HOWEVER...DOES APPR LKLY...BUT ITS EXACT TRACK NOT
CLR ATTM.

RSL 68/96 52  SLN 68/96 52
ICT 70/93 33  HUT 70/94 33
CNU 73/91 34

HOWERTON

KSZ032-033-047>051-060500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:

BARTON  ELLSWORTH LINCOLN  MC PHERSON  RICE  RUSSELL SALINE

SYNOPSIS:

AFTERNOON HEATING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH AND
DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM HILL CITY TO NEAR PRATT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA DEVELOP SOUTH AND INTO KANSAS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
ALL OF CENTRAL KANSAS.

*TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO LYONS
UNTIL 1000 PM

HOWERTON

KSZ032-033-047>051-060500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:

BARTON  ELLSWORTH LINCOLN  MC PHERSON  RICE  RUSSELL SALINE

SYNOPSIS:

AFTERNOON HEATING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH AND
DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM HILL CITY TO NEAR PRATT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMhS OVER NEBRASKA DEVELOP SOUTH AND INTO KANSAS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
ALL OF CENTRAL KANSAS.

*TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO LYONS
UNTIL 1000 PM

HOWERTON