Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 AM CST SAT DEC 16 1995

CONVECTION FINALLY BREAKING OUT!  A GOOD DEAL OF TRAINING ALREADY
OCCURING IN THE INVERTED PRESSURE TROF AND FOCUSING NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AND WF AROUND CLL.  THETA-E RIDGE
SHOULD BECOME MORE EXPLOSIVE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND MORE MOISTURE
STREAMS IN.   OLD TIME FORECASTER FROM THE OFFICE RECOUNTED THAT
THESE TYPE OF CUTOFF LOWS COMING OUT OF THE W WILL FOCUS PRECIP IN
CLOSER TO THE LOW AS THEY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND ARE VERY FREQUENTLY
SLOWER IN MOVEMENT THAN MODELS PREDICT.  AND LASTLY...BEWARE OF THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIORNMENT...PRECIP IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN IS USUALLY
EXPECTED.  GIVEN THE TREND OF THE LAST 4 DAYS HAVE TO AGREE WITH
LOCAL WISDOM.      FFA IS A MUST...HIGH POPS AND MENTION SVR.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE GOING BALLISTIC BY 12Z TODAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SEE NCEP PRODUCTS FOR QPF REASONING WHICH
APPEARS VALID BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS EVIDENT ISOLATED 6+" APPEARING
MORE LIKELY.  ON SATEL...NEXT IMPULSE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN AREA
AROUND 12Z WHICH AGREES WELL WITH ETA PROG.  COORDINATION WITH SPC
INDICATING SVR WATCH BEING CONSIDERED ATTM.  GOT TO GO...VILS OF 54
SUPPORTING TREMENDOUS MARBLE-SIZED HAIL FALLOUTS.  REFLECTIVITY CORES
OF 55 DBZ AT OR ABOVE 27KFT APPEAR TO BE THE SVR THRESHOLD ATTM.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
1044 PM CST SAT DEC 16 1995

...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...

PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE BRAZOS RIVER
VALLEY AND A LITTLE LATER IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM LA GRANGE
SOUTHEASTWARD.  PATCHY SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST HAD PUSHED INLAND TO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF HOUSTON...AS WELL AS GALVESTON
AND TRINITY BAY.  AT 1030 PM...VISIBILITIES HAD DROPPED TO NEAR 1/4
MILE AT BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION.  GENERALLY...VISIBILITIES WERE IN THE 1
TO 3 MILE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED FROM NEAR JASPER WESTWARD
TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
THE FOG TO BLANKET MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY DROP TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...SO MOTORISTS TRAVERSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL...SLOW DOWN...
USE ONLY YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS TO AVOID BLINDING ON COMING VEHICLE.