Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
300 PM CDT WED MAY 17 1995

ACTIVITY HAS HIT A LULL FINALLY WITH ONLY ACTION ACRS FAR SRN PART OF
FCST AREA.  REISSUED FFW FOR 4 COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES OF
CONTD RAIN 3/4"+ IN ONE HOUR.  SFC FNT LIES JUST S OF AREA FM ABOUT
MOBERLY TO NEVADA.  BEST AMS LIES S OF BDRY AND WILL EXPECT CHC SVR
TO BE THERE TONITE WITH R++.  METRO THROUGH MACON WEDGE LIKELY TO STILL
SEE SOME GOOD RAINS...AND FFA LIKELY STILL NEEDED.  FAR NW/NC MO DEEPER
INTO THE COOL AND STABLE AIR AND A BIT LESS OF A THREAT.  BEST POPS
TONITE PER GUIDANCE...BUT STILL A REASONABLE POP THU TOO...ESPECIALLY
EARLY.  FINALLY MAY DRY OUT FOR THU NITE AND FRI AND WILL FCST SUCH AS
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN BEHIND DEPARTING SYS.

GUID TEMPS CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH EXPECTD CONDS.

MCI   47/57   +7

WELVAERT

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT WED MAY 17 1995

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE EASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OF

ATCHISON  DONIPHAN  JOHNSON  LEAVENWORTH  LINN  MIAMI  WYANDOTTE

AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES OF

ADAIR      CASS       GENTRY     JOHNSON     PETTIS    SCHUYLER
ANDREW     CHARITON   GRUNDY     LAFAYETTE   PLATTE    SULLIVAN
ATCHISON   CLAY       HARRISON   LINN        PUTNAM    WORTH
BATES      CLINTON    HENRY      LIVINGSTON  RANDOLPH
BUCHANAN   COOPER     HOLT       MACON       RAY
CALDWELL   DAVIESS    HOWARD     MERCER      ST CLAIR
CARROLL    DEKALB     JACKSON    NODAWAY     SALINE

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...
...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO MACON LINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM AROUND MOBERLY TO OSCEOLA.  THE AIR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MORE COOL
AND STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  THIS CONTRAST...COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THESE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY
TO KIRKSVILLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  WIDESPREAD RAINS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MANY AREAS OF FLOODING.  THE
ADDITION OF MORE WATER TO THE PICTURE WILL ONLY MAKE MATTERS WORSE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ST JOSEPH TO MACON FOR THIS THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ACTIVATION IN THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREA.  PERSONS ARE ALSO URGED TO
BE ESPECIALLY ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER LATER.  BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE RADIO OR
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

WELVAERT