Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
300 PM CDT SAT APR 8 1995

ANOTHER STRNG CAP OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY PUT A LID ON
TSTM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE DECENT NUMBERS IN OTHER INDICES. AT 19Z...SFC
LI'S RANGED FROM -2 TO -8 FROM N TO S ACRS CWA...CAPE VALUES ARE MUCH
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY PM AND THERE APPEAR TO BE MORE LOW LVL CNVGNC
OVER NRN MO SINCE FNTL POS IS FURTHER S THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. BUT
THE CAPPING SEEMS TO BE TOO STRNG ONCE AGAIN ATTM. VIS LOOPS AS OF 19Z
SHOWS FEW LINES OF CU OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO. THE AIR IS JUICY ENOUGH
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT QUESTION REMAINS...WILL VORT MAX MVNG ACRS NE
THIS EVNG BE ENOUGH TO BREAK LID. NO NGM PCGRIDDS DATA THIS PM BUT ETA
GRIDDED DATA SHWS MOISTURE CNVGNC FIELDS AND QPF FCST FURTHER S THAN
LAST NIGHT'S TSTMS IN RESPONSE TO SFC FNT BEING FURTHER S. ATTM SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE 50 PERCENT POP FOR TNT IN NW MO ZONES. SUN LKS
INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST. BOTH MODELS EJECT STRN VORT MAXES
NORTHWARD ACRS KS SUN EVE. OUT OF ALL THREE MODELS...ETA HINTING AT
BEING THE SLOWEST IN DRAGGING A CD FNT THRU WRN MO. STRNG 24 UNIT VORT
MAX PROGGED OVER SRN NM IN BASE OF TROF POSITION SUGGESTS SLOWER
MOVMEMENT OF FNT AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING WITH CLOSED LOW BEING
FURTHER SOUTH IN POTENTIAL R/S EVENT FOR MON AND TUE. THE TREND HAS
BEEN SLOWER AND DEEPER ALL ALONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LK
OK FOR TNT BUT WITH ANY SUNSHINE ON SUN...CAN SEE TEMPS HIGHER SO TO
KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH OUR CRNT FCST SUGGEST LOW 70S ON SUN FOR WRN
MO...A CAT OR TWO ABOVE THE NUMBERS. ALSO FAVOR COMBINING SUN NIGHT AND
MON FCST WITH A 30 PERCENT POP SINCE TIMING OF SRT WV$S COMING OUT OF
THIS TROF IS SKETCHY AT BEST.

MCI 56/72 44

BODNER