Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 1995

VSBL SATL IMAGERY THIS MORN SHOWS CLRG WORKING INTO ST ASSCTD WITH
DRY SLOT FROM PERSISTANT UPR LVL LO THAT WAS TWIRLING OVR SRN LWR
MI. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP MOIST SRLY FLO HEADING E OF REGION AS MUCH
DRYER AIR MOVS IN AT MID-LVL/S. THIS MORNING/S PIT SOUNDING ATTESTS
TO THIS DRYER MID-LVL AIR. SFC ANYLS SHOWS FRNTL BNDRY ACRS NRN NEW
ENGLAND W TO LWR MI... NRN IND AND IL. A RATHER UNORGANIZED W-SW
FLO EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACRS ALL OF PA WITH SFC DWPTS RUNNING
FROM THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S SE PA TO NEAR 60 WRN PA. MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT UPR LVL LO WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKEN IN TIME TODAY
AS IT WORKS E TO WRN PA BY 00Z THIS EVE. THIS SYS WILL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR THE SFC BNDRY TO SAG SWRD TO NRN PA BY 00Z. AS MY
PREDECESSOR POINTED OUT... INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW SVR TRW LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY BE COMING TOGETHER. DRYER MID-LVL AIR WORKING INTO ST
PRESENTLY APPEARS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNFICIANT FLOODING THREAT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN STORMS. VSBL SATL INDICATES THAT A FAIR AMNT
OF SS TODAY IS A GOOD BET ACRS FA. WITH SS AND S/W PRESSING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERN LEADING TO HGHT FALLS AND MID-LVL COOLING...
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY ACRS FA.  BNDRY
IS PROGGED BY ALL THREE MODELS TO PUSH SWRD ALSO WHICH WILL HELP
FOCUS TRW. WRLY FLO AND DRY ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL NOT HELP AND
LACK OF WELL-DEFINED 850 MB JET AND RATHER WK MID-LVL WINDS BOTH
MINUSES. BEST CHC FOR SVR WILL LIE IN SUS VLLY/ERN PA WHERE DWPTS
SHUD REMAIN FROM 65 TO 70 TODAY. MODIFIED IAD SOUNDING WITH T/TD OF
80/68 AND ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON F24 GRIDDED DATA AND CAME UP WITH
LI= -6 CAPE NEAR 2000 J. FOR PIT SOUNDING... RAN A 78/64 PARCEL UP
WITH COOLER MID-LVL TEMPS (BASED ON F24 GRIDDED DATA) TO REFLECT
S/W IMPINGING ON AREA... CAME UP WITH 2600 J AND LI = -8!. THINK
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY FIRE BEFORE 00Z SO MID-LVL TEMPS PROBABLY
OVERDONE SOME. BUT DECENT INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY WITH SS THIS
AFTRN.

FOR TEMPS... MAY HAVE TO RAISE IN SC PA. MID 70S IS ONLY 6-7
DEGREES AWAY FROM CURRENT READINGS. WUD GO 75 TO 80.

NICOSIA

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-040300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
458 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 1995

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...

WARREN... MCKEAN... POTTER... ELK... CAMERON... CLINTON... CLEARFIELD
CENTRE... CAMBRIA... BLAIR... HUNTINGDON... MIFFLIN... JUNIATA...
SOMERSET... BEDFORD... FULTON... FRANKLIN... TIOGA... LYCOMING...
SULLIVAN... UNION... SNYDER... NORTHUMBERLAND... MONTOUR... COLUMBIA...
SCHUYLKILL... PERRY... CUMBERLAND... DAUPHIN... LEBANON... ADAMS...
YORK... AND LANCASTER.

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE REGION...COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...SO A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A
STRONG BUILDING.  DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

JUNG/MICHAUD