Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 1995

VSBL SATL IMAGERY THIS MORN SHOWS CLRG WORKING INTO ST ASSCTD WITH
DRY SLOT FROM PERSISTANT UPR LVL LO THAT WAS TWIRLING OVR SRN LWR
MI. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP MOIST SRLY FLO HEADING E OF REGION AS MUCH
DRYER AIR MOVS IN AT MID-LVL/S. THIS MORNING/S PIT SOUNDING ATTESTS
TO THIS DRYER MID-LVL AIR. SFC ANYLS SHOWS FRNTL BNDRY ACRS NRN NEW
ENGLAND W TO LWR MI... NRN IND AND IL. A RATHER UNORGANIZED W-SW
FLO EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACRS ALL OF PA WITH SFC DWPTS RUNNING
FROM THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S SE PA TO NEAR 60 WRN PA. MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT UPR LVL LO WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKEN IN TIME TODAY
AS IT WORKS E TO WRN PA BY 00Z THIS EVE. THIS SYS WILL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR THE SFC BNDRY TO SAG SWRD TO NRN PA BY 00Z. AS MY
PREDECESSOR POINTED OUT... INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW SVR TRW LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY BE COMING TOGETHER. DRYER MID-LVL AIR WORKING INTO ST
PRESENTLY APPEARS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNFICIANT FLOODING THREAT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN STORMS. VSBL SATL INDICATES THAT A FAIR AMNT
OF SS TODAY IS A GOOD BET ACRS FA. WITH SS AND S/W PRESSING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERN LEADING TO HGHT FALLS AND MID-LVL COOLING...
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY ACRS FA.  BNDRY
IS PROGGED BY ALL THREE MODELS TO PUSH SWRD ALSO WHICH WILL HELP
FOCUS TRW. WRLY FLO AND DRY ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL NOT HELP AND
LACK OF WELL-DEFINED 850 MB JET AND RATHER WK MID-LVL WINDS BOTH
MINUSES. BEST CHC FOR SVR WILL LIE IN SUS VLLY/ERN PA WHERE DWPTS
SHUD REMAIN FROM 65 TO 70 TODAY. MODIFIED IAD SOUNDING WITH T/TD OF
80/68 AND ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON F24 GRIDDED DATA AND CAME UP WITH
LI= -6 CAPE NEAR 2000 J. FOR PIT SOUNDING... RAN A 78/64 PARCEL UP
WITH COOLER MID-LVL TEMPS (BASED ON F24 GRIDDED DATA) TO REFLECT
S/W IMPINGING ON AREA... CAME UP WITH 2600 J AND LI = -8!. THINK
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY FIRE BEFORE 00Z SO MID-LVL TEMPS PROBABLY
OVERDONE SOME. BUT DECENT INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY WITH SS THIS
AFTRN.

FOR TEMPS... MAY HAVE TO RAISE IN SC PA. MID 70S IS ONLY 6-7
DEGREES AWAY FROM CURRENT READINGS. WUD GO 75 TO 80.

NICOSIA

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-040500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ROUGHLY
EAST OF A COUDERSPORT TO JOHNSTOWN LINE IN PENNSYLVANIA.
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST TO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME... A
STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS COLD FRONT AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO A WARM... HUMID AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND WORK SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BEING ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS... STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NICOSIA

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-040500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ROUGHLY
EAST OF A COUDERSPORT TO JOHNSTOWN LINE IN PENNSYLVANIA.
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST TO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME... A
STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS COLD FRONT AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO A WARM... HUMID AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND WORK SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BEING ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS... STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NICOSIA