Tornado Warning 46, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
325 PM CDT THU JUN 08 1995

MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS HOW TO HANDLE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NRN TX PNHNDL...FROM N OF GAG...TO ABOUT 40 N OF AMA...TO S OF DHT
AND CAO.  THE MODELS INDICATE A SFC LOW FORMING IN ERN CO TONIGHT...WITH THE
LOW THEN MOVG NEWD INTO ERN NE BY 36 HRS (00Z FRI). BELIEVE A LOW MAY FORM IN
ERN CO OR THE OK PANHANDLE ALONG THE FRONT...AND THEN MOVE ENE ALONG THE
BNDRY.  HOWEVER...ALSO THINK THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ERN CO/WRN KS AND THE
OK PANHANDLE IS NOT IN A HURRY TO LEAVE. CONVECTION FIRING NEAR AND NORTH OF
THIS BNDRY TONIGHT MAY ALLOW THE FRONT AND COOL AIR TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE TX PNHNDL RENDERING THE GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS FROM THE PAST FEW RUNS
TERRIBLY MISLEADING. THINK THE FRONT WILL SINK THRU MOST OF TX PNHNDL BY 12Z
FRI AND PROBABLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. WILL LIKELY GO SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TON AND FRIDAY...IN MOST ZONES...ON THE ABOVE
REASONING. WILL PROBABLY CARRY 50 POPS IN THE WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS AND 60 IN THE
EAST. WILL ALSO KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR FRI ALL BUT NW WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY
STILL MOVG THRU OR STATIONARY IN THE SERN TX PNHNDL. WILL EMPHASIZE MORE
CLOUDINESS TON AND FRI IN VIEW OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS THAT CURRENTLY
EXISTS OVER ERN CO/WRN KS BEHIND THE FRONT.

18Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED A LIFTED INDEX OF -6...A SWEAT INDEX OF 378...TOTAL
TOTALS OF 56...AND NEAR 2400 J/KG OF CAPE. WBZ HEIGHT WAS 8700 FT AND THE CAP
WAS ABOUT 3 DEG. EXPECTING SFC WINDS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY AND E OF THE DRYLINE
TO BACK MORE SERLY AND INCREASE THIS EVE INCREASING DIR/SPEED SHEAR.  VERY
HIGH DWPT AIR IN THE CNTRL AND ERN TX PNHNDL AND INCREASING SERLY FLOW INTO
THE FRONT TONIGHT LEADS TO A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  RIGHT NOW
HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FL FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES
MOST COUNTIES IN THE AREA CAN HANDLE~ AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HRS. WILL
MENTION LCL HVY RAIN IN FCST FOR THE ERN ZONES WHERE THE HIGHEST DWPTS EXIST.

.AMA...NONE.
.OK...NONE.

CARUSO

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-090500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 08 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO AMARILLO TEXAS TO
CHILDRESS TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WAS ALSO
LOCATED IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PANHANDLES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC WIND
PROFILES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...AND ALL RESIDENTS OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW
SEVERE STORM SAFETY RULES.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR LIKELY
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-090500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 08 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO AMARILLO TEXAS TO
CHILDRESS TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WAS ALSO
LOCATED IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PANHANDLES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC WIND
PROFILES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...AND ALL RESIDENTS OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW
SEVERE STORM SAFETY RULES.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR LIKELY
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ANDRADE