Tornado Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

STARTING TO CRANK OUT WARNINGS SO LTL TIME 4 DISCUSSION.  HV BEEN
CLOSELY WATCHING MESONET ALL DAY...WATCHING PROGRESSION OF FRONT.
AFTR REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...CNVTN DEVELOPED
ACRS CENT OK AND THIS HAS BEGUN TO GIVE ADDED PUSH TO THE FRONT.
WITH THIS NEW PUSH...WL HV TO MAKE LATE ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES.  NGM
HAS FRONT MORE &NORTHERLY...AND WENT WITH AVN.  AVN MVS LOW THRU
AREA QUICKER THAN NGM OR ETA WOULD WENT WITH THAT TREND.

WL GO WITH FFA FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS PSBL.

/15

.TUL...FFA ZNS 54>67.

OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL COUNTIES
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AND RISE OVER THE FRONT.  AS THAT OCCURS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
NUMEROUS...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE.  THE INITIAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL INHIBIT MOST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME WARMER.  BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNAzDOES FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OKC113-117-102015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
210 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

..THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

AT 201 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS CLUSTER WAS
BOUNDED BY AREA EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO ENID TO STILLWATER.
MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WAS NORTHEAST AT 45 MILES AN HOUR.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PAWNEE COUNTY
BY 230 PM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AND STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 8 PM.

OKZ056>058-061>063-102000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT MAY PRESENT RIVER FLOOD PROBLEMS
   FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT.  THIS IS DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH THE AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEOSHO RIVER AT COMMERCE IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO CREST 3 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING...FROM RAIN THAT OCCURRED
SATURDAY.  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT COULD RESULT
A CREST OF 5 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT COMMERCE BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WOULD ALSO CAUSE THE VERDIGRIS RIVER TO RISE TO
NEAR BANKFULL AT COFFEYFILLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT LENAPAH BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE SPRING RIVER AT QUAPAW COULD ALSO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY
HEAVY RAIN.  IF AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURS TONIGHT
...THE SPRING RIVER AT QUAPAW COULD RISE TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

REMEMBER...AT THIS TIME...THE RIVER RISES MENTIONED ABOVE ARE BASED
ONLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
PERSONS THAT HAVE INTERESTS WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED BY THESE
POTENTIAL RIVER RISES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOUR.S.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

TIME(CDT)     COUNTY         EVENT

335 PM        OSAGE          PUBLIC REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
                             IN SOUTHEAST OSAGE COUNTY...ABOUT 5 MILES
                             EAST OF HOMINY NEAR THE WEST END OF SKIATOOK
                             LAKE.

OKC101-111-143-145-102215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

AT 412 PM A THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN OKMULGEE COUNTY
NEAR THE CITY OF OKLMULGEE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS STORM
TO BECOME SEVERE.

PERSONS IN OKMULGEE...SOUTHERN TULSA...WESTERN WAGONER AND WESTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES SHOULD CLOSELY LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM AND BE READY TO QUICKLY MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
432 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

TIME(CDT)     COUNTY         EVENT

250 PM        PAWNEE         NICKLE SIZE HAIL 6 MILES WEST OF MARAMEC.

302 PM        PAWNEE         NICKLE SIZE HAIL IN MARAMEC.

330 PM        OSAGE          QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF HOMINY.

356 PM        TULSA          HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN OWASSO.

310 PM        CREEK          DIME SIZE HAIL 5 MILES NORTH OF BRISTOW.