Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 AM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

LOTS OF MOISTURE STILL OVR THE AREA...DRY AIR HAS MOVED BACK INTO
FAR W TX...AS MOISTURE AXIS HAS PUSHED TO A DFW-FSI LINE.  FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN OK FROM AN AMA LOW TO NEAR END TO
THE AR-MO STATE BORDER.  WIND FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT WL NOT GIVE A
PUSH TO THE FRONT SO CAN NOT SEE THAT IT WL MOVE MUCH DURING THE
DAY.

94E HAS FA AREA HIGHLIGHTED AND LKS AS IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS FA TONIGHT...SO WL LK AT ISSUING FFA...BUT
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LTR TO PIN DOWN THE AREA.

AS 4 UPDATE... LKD AT 700 TEMPS AND APRS THAT SE WL HAV GOOD CAP
UNTL TONtIGHT...AND LWR POPS THERE ALREADY REFLECT THIS.  ALSO
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLDY AND SO TEMPS LK PRTY GOOD...WL ADJUST
WITH MESONET TEMP TRENDS.

/15

.TUL...NONE.

OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL COUNTIES
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AND RISE OVER THE FRONT.  AS THAT OCCURS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
NUMEROUS...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE.  THE INITIAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL INHIBIT MOST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME WARMER.  BY TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNAzDOES FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OKC113-117-102015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
210 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

..THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

AT 201 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS CLUSTER WAS
BOUNDED BY AREA EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO ENID TO STILLWATER.
MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WAS NORTHEAST AT 45 MILES AN HOUR.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PAWNEE COUNTY
BY 230 PM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AND STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 8 PM.

OKZ056>058-061>063-102000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT SUN APR 10 1994

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT MAY PRESENT RIVER FLOOD PROBLEMS
   FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT.  THIS IS DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH THE AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEOSHO RIVER AT COMMERCE IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO CREST 3 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING...FROM RAIN THAT OCCURRED
SATURDAY.  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT COULD RESULT
A CREST OF 5 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT COMMERCE BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WOULD ALSO CAUSE THE VERDIGRIS RIVER TO RISE TO
NEAR BANKFULL AT COFFEYFILLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT LENAPAH BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE SPRING RIVER AT QUAPAW COULD ALSO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY
HEAVY RAIN.  IF AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURS TONIGHT
...THE SPRING RIVER AT QUAPAW COULD RISE TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

REMEMBER...AT THIS TIME...THE RIVER RISES MENTIONED ABOVE ARE BASED
ONLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
PERSONS THAT HAVE INTERESTS WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED BY THESE
POTENTIAL RIVER RISES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOUR.S.