Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Norman, OK

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OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-091200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 8 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO GUTHRIE TO SEMINOLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM SHATTUCK TO ANADARKO TO WAURIKA.

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FEATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF TULSA TO NEAR KINGFISHER.
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WITH A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HOBART. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. IF WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP...THEN THE RESULTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. IN ADDITION...AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. STRONG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES ALSO
EXISTS.

IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE
AND A STRONGER CAP ALOFT.

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE ON
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BSC

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-091200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 8 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO GUTHRIE TO SEMINOLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM SHATTUCK TO ANADARKO TO WAURIKA.

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FEATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF TULSA TO NEAR KINGFISHER.
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WITH A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HOBART. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. IF WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP...THEN THE RESULTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. IN ADDITION...AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. STRONG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES ALSO
EXISTS.

IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE
AND A STRONGER CAP ALOFT.

STORM SPOTTER AND E<MERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE ON
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BSC