Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
405 AM CDT WED JUN 8 1994

GRIDDED DATA INDCD BEST MSTR CONVERGENCE YDAY AFTN IN NW OK/SW KS ALG
DRYLN BUT CAP PREVENTED TRW. GRIDDED DATA ALSO SHOWED 25H JET MAX THAT
ASSISTED TRW DVLPMENT IN ABI-SJT VCNTY WHERE MSTR CONVERGENCE WAS LESS
IMPRESSIVE BUT RRQUAD PROVIDED.

THIS JET MAX WILL NOT BE AVBL TO ASSIST IN VERT MOTION AND REDUCE CAP
STRENGTH TDY NOR WILL MUCH ELSE. IF ANYTHING MID AND UPPER LVL FORCING
WILL BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS DO INDC STG
LOW-LVL WAA (85-70H) THRU TODAY AS SFC GRAD INCRSES AND MOVES INTO CNTRL
AND ERN OK. THIS AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF SFC LOW AND OUTFLOW
BNDRYS WILL NEED TO BE STRONG ENUF TO BREAK CAP. WITH MSTR CONV MAX FCST
TO BE ONLY SLGTLY STGR THAN THAT OF YDAY IN NW OK...THERE IS SOME DOUBT
THAT CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP IS BROKEN THERE IS
NO DOUBT ABT SEVERE WX. ALSO...TRW COULD DVLP ALG NRN FRINGE OF CAP AND
MOVE SWD INTO FA AS SWODY1 SUGGS.

A WARM START TO THE DAY WILL HELP SFC HTG AND GET TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
100S IN SW OK AND N TX BHND DRYLN. PLAN TO KEEP POPS IN CHC CAT FOR NRN
AND CNTRL OK TDY...SLGT CHC IN SE. EXPECT DRYLN TO PASS BY SW OK AND N
TX ZNS. WL HAVE SLGT CHC TRW IN ERN HALF OF RED RVR VLY AND N TX ZNS FOR
THURS AS DRYLN BACKS WEST BEFORE CDFNT AND SFC LOW FINALLY MAKE IT THRU
FA BY FRI NITE. FRONT THEN FCST TO BCM STNRY IN N TX JUST S OF RED RIVER
WITH SFC LOW IN TEXAS SOUTH PLNS ON FRI AND ANOTHER CHC OF TRW.

FCSTID=#22/BT

HBR  103  67  90  61 / 0   0   0   0
OKC   93  70  90  61 / 30  30  0   0
SPS  103  70  93  63 / 10  10  20  0
GAG   96  60  85  60 / 10  10  0   0
PNC   93  64  85  60 / 40  40  0   0
DUA   93  70  93  63 / 20  30  40  20

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-091200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 8 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO GUTHRIE TO SEMINOLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM SHATTUCK TO ANADARKO TO WAURIKA.

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FEATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF TULSA TO NEAR KINGFISHER.
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WITH A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HOBART. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. IF WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP...THEN THE RESULTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. IN ADDITION...AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. STRONG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES ALSO
EXISTS.

IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE
AND A STRONGER CAP ALOFT.

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE ON
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BSC

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-091200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 8 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO GUTHRIE TO SEMINOLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM SHATTUCK TO ANADARKO TO WAURIKA.

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FEATURES THAT MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF TULSA TO NEAR KINGFISHER.
THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WITH A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HOBART. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. IF WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP...THEN THE RESULTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. IN ADDITION...AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. STRONG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES ALSO
EXISTS.

IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE
AND A STRONGER CAP ALOFT.

STORM SPOTTER AND E<MERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE ON
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BSC