EF0 tornado, Fry, Wyoming, June 22, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1121 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTION AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
..AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM MAIN SW AXIS SWINGING AROUND BASE OF LIFTING
NW CONUS TROUGH INFLUENCE THE FA. REBUILDING SFC LOW IS POISED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR SCNTRL TO SERN WY BY MID DAY...WITH SFC INVERTED TROUGH
CUTTING DIAGONALLY UP TOWARDS THE CODY AREA ...GIVING US AN AIR MASS
DIFFERENTIAL TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE N TO NW OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO
ORIENT THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SW TO NE FROM ERN SWEETWATER TO
JOHNSON COUNTY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH MINOR BULLS EYE ACROSS
NATRONA COUNTY. STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE EAST OF THIS
DIVISION FOR THE MOST PART. AVAILABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS
TOGETHER WITH MODERATE MIX LAYER CAPE INSTABILITIES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG IN THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL GIVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LOW ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
A TORNADO. RIGHT NOW...IT'S ALL LOCATION...LOCATION...LOCATION OF
THE SFC SETUP AND LL RETURN FLOW AS UPPER FORCING WILL CERTAINLY BE
AROUND. ALSO RIGHT NOW...TWO THINGS...OVERALL INSTABILITY EXCEPT FOR
NATRONA COUNTY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
NATRONA A BIT...LOW TO NON-EXISTENT CAPPING WILL AID IN KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM BLOWING OUT OF CONTROL...AND BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF ROGUES. EVEN DOWNDRAFT POSSIBILITIES
SEEM RATHER LOW ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FOR ERN SWEETWATER AND PERHAPS
ERN FREMONT OR SWRN NATRONA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION ON THE WAY OUT BY EARLY EVENING AS FRONT
AND UPPER WAVE BOTH EXIT STAGE EAST...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TRANSITIONAL RIDGING BEGINS SUNDAY WITH
FAIRLY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES ON TAP ACROSS THE CWA. WARMING BEGINS.
ALTHOUGH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
FA...WINDS WILL NOT GUST ENOUGH OVER THE ZONES WITH CURRENT CRITICAL
FUELS TO RAISE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE
FA EXCEPT FOR THE NWRN CWA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY INCREASE IN MED LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE WEST...ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER IMPULSE BEING
THROWN AROUND THE BASE OF YET ANOTHER PAC NW TROUGH. SOME CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CROSSING INTO RFW TERRITORY WITH LOW
RH VALUES AND STRONG SWRLY FLOW MIXING OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280
285 AND 300.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AND FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDRESSED IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER TUE PM AND EARLY EVE. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON
WEDNESDAY A WEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. HAVE
LEFT IN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS WED PM AND EARLY EVE. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN
AROUND THE HIGH WOULD PUT MOST OF THE REGION IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE HOTTEST 700MB TEMPS WOULD STAY
OVER THE WEST AND ANY DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
COULD SPARK A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS EACH DAY. ADDED SOME LOW PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN ADDED IN THE EAST ZONES
FROM BUFFALO TO CASPER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STORM COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY INCREASE AS WELL. TEMPS TO WARM WED THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH EACH DAY BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. AS
THE GLENN FREY SONG QUOTES...THE HEAT IS ON OH IT'S ON THE STREET...
THE HEAT IS...ON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF RAIN THE FUELS WILL JUST GET DRIER.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A STRONG DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INITIATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING...INCLUDING
KCPR...KWRL...KBYG...KRIW...AND KLND. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME PERIODS
OF STRONG WIND. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
STORMS WILL BE LESS INTENSE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED BY 07Z SUNDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE TODAY FOR MOST DISPATCH ZONES
WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEARLY
ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR ZONES 277 AND MOST OF 414. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE EASTERN HALF OF
SWEETWATER COUNTY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE FOR DRIER MORE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE WESTERN
PORTION OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...BUT WINDS MAY
GUST OUT OF THE WEST TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RH VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER FOR ALL ZONES TODAY...STAYING AT LEAST INTO THE
TEENS EVEN OVER ZONES 278 AND 279...WITH 20S TO 50S EVERYWHERE
ELSE.

SUNDAY...A WARM UP BEGINS...WITH HIGHS WARMING SOME 7 TO 9 DEG OVER
SATURDAY HIGHS. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
TEENS MOST LOW LAND AREAS...20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT OVER OUR EASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES WHERE FUELS
LEAN TOWARDS CRITICAL. DRIEST AND GUSTIEST WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD
OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE FUELS ARE STILL OK. MONDAY ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL LEND ITSELF TOWARDS MORE DRY AND WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DRY FUEL AREAS OF ZONES 280 285 AND 300
WHICH WILL ENHANCE FIRE CONCERNS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH 343 IN EFFECT FOR BIG HORN...WASHAKIE...HOT
SPRINGS...JOHNSON...NATRONA AND FREMONT COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...LAVOIE
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1119 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WYZ001>020-022>030-231100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
1119 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BIG HORN...JOHNSON...FREMONT...
NATRONA...WASHAKIE AND HOT SPRINGS COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF WYOMING. BE ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ADVERSE WEATHER IMPACT YOUR
LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST ON MONDAY. DRY...
WINDY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS INTO
THE OWL CREEK AND SOUTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON
COUNTY. THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST
AND NORTH. STILL WINDY AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED IN JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZES AND WIND
DAMAGE AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN. THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1247 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             POWDER RIVER            43.03N 106.98W
06/22/2013  E1.50 INCH       NATRONA            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BROKE WINDOWS IN SPOTTERS HOME.

&&

DLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
104 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     HAIL             POWDER RIVER            43.03N 106.98W
06/22/2013  E2.75 INCH       NATRONA            WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS WITH DAMAGE PULLED OVER ON HIGHWAY

&&

TL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
115 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     19 NW CASPER            43.03N 106.60W
06/22/2013                   NATRONA            WY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED BY ASST EMERGENCY MANAGER
            LOOKING NORTH FROM HIGHWAY 20/26 MILE MARKER 15.

&&

MCDONALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
126 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WYZ009>011-222015-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST WY-NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY WY-SOUTHEAST
JOHNSON COUNTY WY-
126 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
MDT...

AT 118 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF BUFFALO TO
SOUTH OF KAYCEE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SUSSEX AROUND 135 PM MDT.
LINCH AROUND 140 PM MDT.
FORT RENO HISTORICAL SITE AROUND 145 PM MDT.
POWDER RIVER REST AREA AROUND 210 PM MDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 241 AND
299.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 43 AND
95.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4350 10668 4456 10695 4457 10602 4453 10599
      4436 10601 4405 10600 4350 10601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 270DEG 24KT 4442 10666 4358 10633

MCDONALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
130 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WYZ002>008-222015-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WY-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST WY-CODY FOOTHILLS
WY-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN WY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS
WY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN WY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN WY-
130 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOT SPRINGS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WYOMING...AND WESTERN BIG HORN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHAKIE
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING...AND EASTERN PARK COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST WYOMING UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 124 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF CLARK TO
THE GRASS CREEK AREA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
COWLEY AND BYRON AROUND 135 PM MDT.
LEGEND ROCK STATE PETROGLYPH SITE AND HAMILTON DOME AROUND 140 PM
MDT.
LOVELL AROUND 145 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4497 10787 4493 10787 4491 10784 4487 10785
      4482 10781 4377 10798 4369 10886 4501 10869
      4500 10810 4501 10809 4501 10791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 270DEG 23KT 4497 10851 4374 10869

MCDONALD

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