Tornadoes · United States · Wisconsin · 2021

EF0 tornado, Grellton to Sullivan, Wisconsin, July 29, 2021

From Grellton to Sullivan, this EF0 tornado ran 3.6 miles across Jefferson County on July 29, 2021, touching down at 1:07 AM CDT and reaching 25 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
July 29, 2021
Touchdown
1:07 AM CDT (06:07 UTC)
Lifted
1:12 AM CDT (06:12 UTC)
On the ground
5 minutes
Path length
3.6 miles (5.8 km)
Path width
25 yards (23 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Jefferson County
Touchdown point
43.115, -88.744
Lift-off point
43.080, -88.692
Record number
2107290007-01

The damage survey

99 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS MKX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 110 mph.

  • North side Basement blew in as well.
  • Edge of corn crop pushed down in multiple directions.
  • Metal sheeting wrapped around downed power pole.
  • Two garages and one large horse barn collapsed. Debris throw into field to the SSE. Garage was bolted into foundation, but wood was rotten.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A round of severe storms tracked into southwest Wisconsin during the early morning hours on July 28th. Followed by another round of stronger, more widespread thunderstorms that begin to dive south across central Wisconsin late in the evening on July 28th through the early morning hours on July 29th.

This was 1 of 17 tornadoes to occur in Wisconsin on the night of July 28th into the early morning hours of July 29th. This was the 11th overall tornado for the event. A line of storms developed in northern Wisconsin and pushed south into southern Wisconsin in the overnight hours of the 28th into the 29th of July with mainly brief tornadoes and damaging winds occurring.| |This tornado began to the southwest of Watertown and mainly moved through rural areas to the south of the city. Some of the main damage was to a house/farm near Hilltop Rd and Horseshoe Rd, otherwise it was mainly tree and crop damage. The path cross Highway 26 near Ebenezer Rd and ended near Cattail Dr.

This was 1 of 17 tornadoes to occur in Wisconsin on the night of July 28th into the early morning hours of July 29th. This was the 12th overall tornado for the event. A line of storms developed in northern Wisconsin and pushed south into southern Wisconsin in the overnight hours of the 28th into the 29th of July with mainly brief tornadoes and damaging winds occurring. ||This tornado began near Highway 26 north of I-94 and eventually crossed I-94 near Saucer Dr. Mainly tree damage along this path.

This was 1 of 17 tornadoes to occur in Wisconsin on the night of July 28th into the early morning hours of July 29th. This was the 13th overall tornado for the event. A line of storms developed in northern Wisconsin and pushed south into southern Wisconsin in the overnight hours of the 28th into the 29th of July with mainly brief tornadoes and damaging winds occurring. ||This tornado began a few country blocks east of tornado #12 and started near County Highway P near Aliceton Dr and then tracked to the south, damaging a number of structures along County Rd E, crossing I-94 before going through Concord. The tornado then went through rural areas before ending east of Willow Glen Rd.

This was 1 of 17 tornadoes to occur in Wisconsin on the night of July 28th into the early morning hours of July 29th. This was the 14th overall tornado for the event. A line of storms developed in northern Wisconsin and pushed south into southern Wisconsin in the overnight hours of the 28th into the 29th of July with mainly brief tornadoes and damaging winds occurring. ||This tornado began near Indian Point Rd to the southwest of Golden Lake in the far eastern part of Jefferson county. It crossed the Jefferson/Waukesha County line to the NW of the Bark River. Damage noted in this area by Indian Point Rd was to trees.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Jul 28, 8:50 PM CDT, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 8:50 PM CDT, 4 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
850 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.UPDATE...
(Issued 849 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Storms have started over northern WI/central MN this evening along
the warm front and weak lake breeze boundary off of Lake Superior.
The 00z MPX sounding is quite unstable with 4,000-6,000 J/kg much
of this is due to steeper mid/upper level lapse rates. The surface
lapse rates remain weak due to remnant cloud cover and smoke layer
which likely limited some heating/mixing this afternoon. But as
the LLJ gets going and bulk shear ramps up expect any storms to
quickly become severe. Hodographs showed strong turning in the low
levels with the MPX sounding and this is also evident in the VWP
hodograph from the ARX radar. As the LLJ intensifies tonight we
can potentially expect a similar looking hodograph for our area
ahead of the storms arriving.

While all modes of severe are possible as storms congeal into a
line and drop south, the greatest threat is going to be with
strong damaging winds of 70 to 90+ mph. In addition to that if we
do end up with a similar looking hodograph we could see a few
embedded tornadoes in the line. The threat area is for the entire
area especially since storms are developing a little further to
the west than forecast.

Made some minor tweaks to the timing of storms but otherwise the
forecast is in good shape.

Stumpf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Tonight:

Main focus continues to be on anticipated severe convective
system rolling through here later this evening. Think as storms
transition from more discrete/supercellular to our north and
congeal to a line structure closer to central WI that the line
will really gain speed and roll through southern WI, esp EC and SE
WI in fairly short order. Potential is fairly high this will bow
out with winds in excess of 70 and perhaps a few QLCS type
tornadoes as well. So the heightened moderate from SPC looks on
track. Decent upper level jet divergence, a mid level shortwave
and plenty of higher CAPE values into the late evening/early
overnight, the environment appears primed to support the arriving
storms.

Thursday through Thursday night:

Cool advection and high pressure take hold. Winds will be
predominantly from the north and northeast. Expecting some lower
cloud cover to linger especially for the morning but with a low
level thermal trough the clouds may be a bit more stubborn.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Friday through Friday night:

High pressure remains in control into Friday though shifts off to
the southeast and begins a waa regime.

Saturday through Saturday night:

A northwest mid level flow will drop in a some mid level energy
with an associated low pressure system and cold front. Progs are
in pretty good agreement in developing some shra/tsra with these
features that could linger into the evening hours.

Sunday through Wednesday:

High pressure will largely dominate this period. There is some
hint of some diurnal activity with any mid level troughing that
may swing through, especially Monday into Monday evening. So some
precip potential may need to be added to the forecast at some
point. For now will stick with the blended guid and leave this
mention out for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 849 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Initially VFR conditions are forecast this evening but a strong
line of thunderstorms is expected to drop south out of north-
central WI. These will bring strong gusty winds, heavy downpours,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and IFR/MVFR cigs. Once storms
move through expect some improvement in cigs/vsbys through the
morning as drier air starts to filter in from the north. A few
areas of MVFR cigs are possible Thursday afternoon for locations
closer to the lake as a front rolls down Lake Michigan.

Stumpf

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to track
across northern Wisconsin late this afternoon and then drop into
central and southern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan this evening. It
should exit southern Lake Michigan by 4 AM.

Persistent northerly winds on Thursday will build higher waves
over the south half of Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon through
Friday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 9:04 PM CDT, 4 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
904 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-300215-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
904 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of thunderstorms will move southward into southern
Wisconsin this evening into the overnight hours. Severe
thunderstorms are expected with damaging winds as the main
concern. Large hail and a tornado are possible as well. A
Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued until 2 AM for all of southern Wisconsin.

An Air Quality Advisory for Ozone is in effect for Kenosha,
Racine, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, and Sheboygan counties until 11 pm
CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report peak wind gusts and any damage
observed to the national weather service at milwaukee/sullivan.

LMZ643>646-300215-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
904 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of thunderstorms will move southward into southern
Wisconsin this evening into the overnight hours. Severe
thunderstorms are expected with damaging winds as the main
concern. Large hail and a tornado are possible as well. A
Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued until 2 AM for all of the nearshore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-300215-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
904 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of thunderstorms will move southward into southern
Wisconsin this evening into the overnight hours. Severe
thunderstorms are expected with damaging winds as the main
concern. Large hail and a tornado are possible as well. A
Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued until 2 AM for the western open waters of Lake
Michigan at this time. This could be expanded eastward overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday evening.

www.weather.gov/mkx

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 11:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1148 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

WIZ056-057-290530-
Columbia-Sauk-

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN COLUMBIA AND
SAUK COUNTIES...

At 1147 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Westfield to near
Reedsburg to near Westby. Movement was south at 50 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Portage, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Wisconsin
Dells, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Lake Delton, Poynette, Spring Green,
West Baraboo, Plain, Bluffview, North Freedom, Merrimac, La Valle,
Rock Springs, Loganville and Ironton.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4364 8945 4337 8936 4329 8954 4329 8971
      4326 8974 4324 8980 4319 8986 4319 8992
      4320 8999 4316 9005 4315 9005 4316 9009
      4316 9018 4317 9019 4355 9019 4356 9031
      4364 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 353DEG 43KT 4379 8961 4361 9004 4364 9078

HANSEN
Local storm report, Jul 29, 12:08 AM CDT, 59 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 29, 12:51 AM CDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 WNW SPRING GREEN      43.21N 90.19W
07/29/2021  M68 MPH          SAUK               WI   ASOS

            THE LONE ROCK ASOS REPORTED A 59 KT GUST.

&&

TP

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), 00:00Z

6.1 hours before the tornado, 161 km from the path. July 29, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2021-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 593 joules per kilogram, CIN -264, lifted condensation level 1088 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2021-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 56 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
593 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-264 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1038 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1088 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1
0-3 km lapse rate
5.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Watertown (RYV), 8 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
00:00 UTC

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 06:07 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in WisconsinEvery tornado in Wisconsin since 1950Warnings in force in Wisconsin nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 29, 2021

36 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
July 291:05 AM CDTEF0Jefferson, WI6.0100
July 291:07 AM CDTEF1Jefferson, WI7.7200
July 291:23 AM CDTEF1Jefferson, WI4.7150
July 291:26 AM CDTEF1Waukesha, WI1.075
July 291:32 AM CDTEF0Waukesha, WI2.450
July 291:38 AM CDTEF1Waukesha, WI0.995
July 2912:40 PM EDTEF0Crawford, PA0.675
July 2912:55 PM EDTEF0Venango, PA0.315$15,000
July 291:54 PM EDTEF1Westmoreland, PA4.9100$275,000
July 292:25 PM EDTEF1Somerset, PA0.265
July 294:04 PM EDTEF1Lehigh, PA2.990
July 294:25 PM EDTEF1Lehigh, PA1.175
July 294:50 PM EDTEF2Harrison, OH2.7220$200,000
July 294:59 PM EDTEF2Carroll, OH6.2150$500,000
July 295:07 PM EDTEF0Howard, MD0.350$50,000
July 295:15 PM EDTEF1Jefferson, OH2.2300$250,000
July 295:16 PM EDTEF0Washington, OH0.155$500
July 295:20 PM EDTEF0Indiana, PA0.110$50,000
July 295:20 PM EDTEF0Pickaway, OH0.950$100,000
July 295:34 PM EDTEF0Lebanon, PA0.760
July 295:40 PM EDTEF1Bucks, PA2.770
July 295:45 PM EDTEF1Jefferson, OH2.3300$250,000
July 295:54 PM EDTEF0Essex, NJ0.350$330,000
July 294:59 PM CDTEF2Bucks, PA to NJ6.3400
July 296:00 PM EDTEF1Greene, PA2.8200$100,000
July 296:10 PM EDTEF0Cambria, PA0.115
July 295:40 PM CDTEF0Cumberland, IL0.550
July 296:56 PM EDTEF1Mercer, NJ1.6100
July 297:04 PM EDTEF3Bensalem tornado, PA3.4530
July 297:07 PM EDTEF0Philadelphia, PA0.440
July 297:58 PM EDTEF1Shelby, IN2.550$43,000
July 298:04 PM EDTEF0Ocean, NJ0.880
July 298:14 PM EDTEF1Shelby, IN0.750$15,000
July 297:20 PM CDTEF1Crawford, IL0.475
July 298:42 PM EDTEF1Ocean, NJ6.5250
July 299:03 PM EDTEF2Ocean, NJ4.2758

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.